Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 39.7%. A win for Colon had a probability of 30.82% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.88%) and 2-1 (7.74%). The likeliest Colon win was 0-1 (11.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.