Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lanus win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Tigre had a probability of 29.9% and a draw had a probability of 29.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lanus win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.14%) and 2-1 (7.85%). The likeliest Tigre win was 0-1 (11.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lanus would win this match.