Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Argentinos Juniors win with a probability of 68.88%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Instituto had a probability of 10.09%.
The most likely scoreline for an Argentinos Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.71%) and 3-0 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.31%), while for a Instituto win it was 0-1 (5%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Argentinos Juniors would win this match.