It is a must-win clash in the Copa Libertadores on Wednesday night as America de Cali host Deportivo La Guaira in the penultimate game in Group H at the Estadio Olimpico Pascual Guerrero Cali in Colombia.
The hosts currently have only one point out of the possible 12 so far, meaning they have to win both their last two games to even stand a chance of progressing, while the visitors are also reliant on other results as they sit on three points.
Match preview
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America de Cali finished bottom of their group last year and it seems they have failed to learn from their mistakes as they have only drawn one game, losing the other three to put themselves in grave danger of repeating themselves.
However, this year they are not only underperforming in the Copa Libertadores but are failing to perform in the league too, particularly in recent weeks.
Last year's champions are currently eighth in the Categoria Primera A in Colombia and have only won one game in their last five matches - and one in seven games across all competitions.
Juan Cruz Real will have to pick his side up as they must win on Wednesday against the only team they have managed to take a point from in the group so far if they want to be playing for something come the last round of group fixtures.
Deportivo La Guaira likewise have a very slim chance of progressing through to the knockouts, as a win for Cerro Porteno against Atletico Mineiro in the other group game will be enough to confirm the top two regardless of the scoreline between the Colombian and Venezuelan side.
After starting the tournament unbeaten with three draws, Los Naranjas lost a crucial match at home to second-placed Cerro Porteno in their last group game.
The Paraguayan side won the tie 1-0 with Claudio Aquino converting from the penalty spot, which was much deserved as they created the most chances with Deportivo La Guaira only registering one shot on target.
Finding the back of the net has been Daniel Farias's side's major downfall this season, resulting in the team having five goalless draws in their last nine games in all competitions.
One of those came against Wednesday's opponents in their first group-stage meeting in Venezuela.
Both teams have scored a combined total of just three goals so far in the tournament and will need to improve their attacking force if they have any hope of gaining the much-needed three points.
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Team News
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The hosts will be without centre-back Kevin Andrade due to suspension, after he received a stoppage-time second yellow card in the last match as his side lost 3-1 against group leaders Atletico Mineiro.
Rodrigo Urena was left out of the matchday squad in last week's game and may return to the fold this week, although he is unlikely to start as Juan Cruz Real will turn to more attacking options in midfield in an attempt to score goals.
The visitors' three centre-backs Henry Pernia, Francisco Mantia and Luis Martinez, along with goalkeeper Carlos Olses, have been La Guaira's standout players, only conceding two goals in the tournament.
However, one of the centre-backs may have to miss out of the starting lineup if Daniel Farias decides to change to a back four in an attempt to provide a greater attacking threat.
Jose Reyes is an option to bring into the starting lineup to boost Los Naranjas' chances of increasing their goal tally, as he recently scored a hat-trick against Carabobo in the league.
America de Cali possible starting lineup:
Graterol; Quino, Cabezas, Murillo, Arrieta; Carrascal, Paz, Cabrera; Mosquera, Ramos, Moreno
Deportivo La Guaira possible starting lineup:
Olses; Cumana, Pernia, Mantia, Silva; Gonzalez, Arles Flores, Pol, Cure; Reyes, Ortiz
We say: America de Cali 0-1 Deportivo La Guaira
Both sides have had a poor record in the Copa Libertadores, with the hosts failing to win in their last eight matches in this competition and the visitors in their last seven.
However, they both need to win this game to stand a chance going into the final match. The game is bound to be a low-scoring affair with Deportivo La Guaira the more likely of the two to win the game.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo La Guaira win with a probability of 39.49%. A win for America de Cali had a probability of 33.61% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo La Guaira win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest America de Cali win was 1-0 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.
