Altay have a chance to end a 10-match winless run in the Turkish Super Lig when they play host to the league leaders Trabzonspor on Tuesday from Bornova Stadium.
The team from Izmir are coming off a 3-1 defeat to Giresunspor, which has them only four points above the relegation line in 16th, while Trabzonspor are nine points clear at the top of the table thanks to a convincing 2-0 win over Hatayspor.
Match preview
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After earning promotion into the top flight through the playoff round last season, Buyuk Altay are just trying to keep their head above water right now, in what has been a tough stretch of games for them which have not turned out the way that they had hoped.
This past weekend Mustafa Denizli saw his side put together some good build-up play with 54% of the possession and completing over 400 passes, however, Cotanaklar goalkeeper Okan Kocuk did not have to contend with a lot of dangerous efforts until the late stages of the match.
They began this campaign impressively, winning five of their opening seven encounters which at the moment seems to be keeping them above relegation as they have only collected a total of three points in league play since October.
The results have not gone their way over the previous couple of months, however, this group have been a handful for the big clubs in Turkey, with their last victory coming versus the defending league champions Besiktas (2-1), while also picking up a point against the 2019-20 Super Lig winners, Istanbul Basaksehir (0-0) and drawing the most decorated side in Turkey, Galatasaray at the beginning of December (2-2).
Altay have been anything but passive in their tactics thus far, creating their share of opportunities in transition, although their wide-open approach has seen them concede plenty of goals, allowing 28 after 17 games, which puts them in a tie for the third-most domestically.
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Following their first blemish of this campaign, dropping a 2-1 decision to Antalyaspor, the team from Trabzon did not take long to get back on track, scoring two first-half goals on Saturday to defeat the 2019-20 TFF First League champions of Turkey.
The team nicknamed Black Sea Storm have finished in the top five over their previous four domestic league campaigns, and it appears as though the 2020 Turkish Cup winners are ready to take the next step as they look to claim their first Super Lig title since 1983-84.
Trabzonspor have been laser-focused and ready to go from the opening whistle, getting an early jump on their opposition throughout much of this campaign so far, going into the interval ahead in their last six league fixtures.
Even though they have allowed their share of targeted efforts in their own third of the field, Abdullah Avci's men have been able to keep the opposition at bay, for the most part, conceding only once in their last five matches played.
They have been clinical in attack, scoring in every domestic game so far this season, and winning four straight contests away from home before their defeat to Antalyaspor, who were aided by an own goal from Trabzonspor defender Dorukhan Tokoz.
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Team News
Andre Biyogo Poko notched the only goal for Altay in their weekend defeat to Giresunspor, his first of the season thanks to a pinpoint cross from Leandro Kappel, who is tied with Diego Rossi and Serdar Gurler for third in the league with five assists and their leading goalscorer Daouda Bamba, who has tallied seven times domestically this season, is without a goal in his last two games.
Veteran centre-back Ibrahim Ozturk started on Friday despite previously sustaining an unknown injury, Nurettin Kucukdeniz is nursing an unknown injury, while Khaly Thiam and Cebrail Karayel were inserted on defence forming a back five in their previous match, with Poko and Eren Erdogan playing in midfield and Ahmed Yasser Rayyan starting as the lone striker.
Ugurcan Cakir picked up his third clean sheet in his last four matches, stopping three shots on Saturday for Trabzonspor, while striker Andreas Cornelius scored his seventh of the season, moving into a tie for the team lead with Anastasios Bakasetas, while Cape Verdean international Djaniny notched the winner in the 24th minute.
The league leaders have had to overcome numerous injuries this month as winger Anthony Nwakaeme has an adductors avulsion, Huseyin Turkmen is out with an unknown injury, Yusuf Sari continues to suffer from a cold, Erce Kardesler is struggling with his fitness and Gervinho sustained a cruciate ligament rupture in late October and remains on the sidelines.
Altay possible starting lineup:
Lis; Naderi, Akca, Bjorkander, Thiam, Karayel; Rodriguez, Pinares, Poko, Kappel; Bamba
Trabzonspor possible starting lineup:
Cakir; Peres, le, Hugo, Denswil; Siopis, Ozdemir; Parmak, Omur, Djaniny; Cornelius
We say: Altay 0-2 Trabzonspor
Trabzonspor were unlucky to come away empty-handed from their fixture with Antalyaspor earlier this month, and it seems as though it was a wakeup call for this team who were a lot sharper in all aspects of their game this past weekend, so we expect them to collect another road victory on Tuesday against a team who have not been particularly strong on the defensive side this season.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Trabzonspor win with a probability of 46.07%. A win for Altay had a probability of 28.79% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Trabzonspor win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.26%) and 0-2 (7.89%). The likeliest Altay win was 1-0 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Trabzonspor would win this match.
