Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malmo win with a probability of 82.53%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Halmstads BK had a probability of 5.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malmo win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.52%) and 1-0 (8.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.51%), while for a Halmstads BK win it was 0-1 (1.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 3.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Malmo would win this match.