Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a GAIS win with a probability of 38.68%. A win for Kalmar had a probability of 36.41% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a GAIS win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.27%) and 0-2 (6.04%). The likeliest Kalmar win was 2-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that GAIS would win this match.