Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elfsborg win with a probability of 60.77%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for IFK Norrkoping had a probability of 17.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elfsborg win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a IFK Norrkoping win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.