Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations | Group Stage

Dec 28, 2025 at 5.30pm UK

Algeria
1 - 0
Burkina Faso

Mahrez (23' pen.)
Bennacer (27'), El Amine Amoura (73'), El Amine Amoura (74')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Sangare (10'), (10'), Landry Kabore (16'), (16'), Tapsoba (89')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Africa Cup of Nations clash between Algeria and Burkina Faso, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Algeria

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Burkina Faso
Sunday, December 28 at 5.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Eq Guinea vs. Algeria
Wednesday, December 31 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Angola	3	3	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	-1	4
3	Mauritania	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	3	-1	2

Burkina Faso

All competitions

This competition

Last Game: Algeria 1-0 Burkina Faso
Sunday, December 28 at 5.30pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Next Game: Sudan vs. Burkina Faso
Wednesday, December 31 at 4pm in Africa Cup of Nations

Current Group D Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Angola	3	3	7
2	Burkina Faso	3	-1	4
3	Mauritania	3	-1	3
4	Algeria	3	-1	2

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Algeria win with a probability of 51.17%. A draw had a probability of 27.22% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 21.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Algeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.77%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.39%) , while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (8.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood.

Result
Algeria	Draw	Burkina Faso
51.17% ( -0.03)	27.22% ( -0.04)	21.6% ( 0.08)

Both teams to score 42.17% (

0.2)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

38.51% (

0.21)

61.49% (

-0.2)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

18.64% (

0.16)

81.36% (

-0.15)

Algeria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.7% (

0.08)

24.29% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.33% (

0.11)

58.67% (

-0.1)

Burkina Faso Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

55.7% (

0.21)

44.3% (

-0.2)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.63% (

0.17)

80.37% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Algeria 51.16%

Burkina Faso 21.6%

Draw 27.21%

Algeria	Draw	Burkina Faso
1-0 @ 15.22% ( -0.09) 2-0 @ 10.77% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.77% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 1.8% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.68% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.24% Total : 51.16%	1-1 @ 12.39% 0-0 @ 10.76% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.49% Total : 27.21%	0-1 @ 8.76% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.05% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 3.57% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.92% Total : 21.6%