AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Oct 3, 2023 at 11am UK
Sungui Arena Park

Incheon United
4 - 0
Kaya

Mugosa (6', 19' pen.), Hernandes (36'), M'Poku (74')
FT(HT: 3-0)
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Incheon United and Kaya.

Form, Standings, Stats

Incheon United

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Last Game: Yokohama 2-4 Incheon United
Tuesday, September 19 at 11am in AFC Champions League
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Kaya

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Last Game: Kaya 1-3 Shandong
Tuesday, September 19 at 1pm in AFC Champions League
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kaya win with a probability of 47.86%. A win for Incheon United had a probability of 28.64% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Kaya win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.33%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Incheon United win was 2-1 (7.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.

Result
Incheon UnitedDrawKaya
28.64% (0.41 0.41)23.49% (-0.323 -0.32)47.86% (-0.084000000000003 -0.08)
Both teams to score 59.95% (1.445 1.45)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.56% (1.771 1.77)41.44% (-1.769 -1.77)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.16% (1.77 1.77)63.84% (-1.768 -1.77)
Incheon United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
72.7% (1.191 1.19)27.3% (-1.19 -1.19)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
37.26% (1.521 1.52)62.74% (-1.519 -1.52)
Kaya Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.47% (0.649 0.65)17.53% (-0.648 -0.65)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.94% (1.119 1.12)48.06% (-1.117 -1.12)
Score Analysis
    Incheon United 28.64%
    Kaya 47.86%
    Draw 23.48%
Incheon UnitedDrawKaya
2-1 @ 7.02% (0.061999999999999 0.06)
1-0 @ 6.21% (-0.29 -0.29)
2-0 @ 4.03% (-0.049 -0.05)
3-1 @ 3.04% (0.126 0.13)
3-2 @ 2.65% (0.162 0.16)
3-0 @ 1.75% (0.037 0.04)
4-1 @ 0.99% (0.072 0.07)
Other @ 2.95%
Total : 28.64%
1-1 @ 10.81% (-0.27 -0.27)
2-2 @ 6.11% (0.18 0.18)
0-0 @ 4.79% (-0.393 -0.39)
3-3 @ 1.54% (0.125 0.13)
Other @ 0.24%
Total : 23.48%
1-2 @ 9.42% (-0.032 -0.03)
0-1 @ 8.33% (-0.497 -0.5)
0-2 @ 7.26% (-0.272 -0.27)
1-3 @ 5.47% (0.095999999999999 0.1)
0-3 @ 4.21% (-0.066 -0.07)
2-3 @ 3.55% (0.177 0.18)
1-4 @ 2.38% (0.091 0.09)
0-4 @ 1.83% (0.01 0.01)
2-4 @ 1.55% (0.108 0.11)
Other @ 3.87%
Total : 47.86%