AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Apr 15, 2021 at 9.15pm UK
Azadi Stadium

Esteghlal
5 - 2
Al-Ahli

Esmaeili (5'), Naderi (54'), Ghaedi (67', 86'), Diabate (88' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Al Somah (27' pen., 79')
Al Somah (37'), Al Moasher (68')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Esteghlal and Al-Ahli.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Esteghlal win with a probability of 52.14%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Al-Ahli had a probability of 23.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a Esteghlal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.61%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.67%), while for an Al-Ahli win it was 0-1 (7.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Esteghlal would win this match.

Result
EsteghlalDrawAl-Ahli
52.14%24.54%23.32%
Both teams to score 51.46%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.68%50.32%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.73%72.26%
Esteghlal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.72%19.27%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
48.99%51.01%
Al-Ahli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.75%36.25%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.96%73.03%
Score Analysis
    Esteghlal 52.13%
    Al-Ahli 23.32%
    Draw 24.54%
EsteghlalDrawAl-Ahli
1-0 @ 11.5%
2-1 @ 9.61%
2-0 @ 9.47%
3-1 @ 5.27%
3-0 @ 5.2%
3-2 @ 2.68%
4-1 @ 2.17%
4-0 @ 2.14%
4-2 @ 1.1%
Other @ 3%
Total : 52.13%
1-1 @ 11.67%
0-0 @ 6.99%
2-2 @ 4.88%
3-3 @ 0.91%
Other @ 0.1%
Total : 24.54%
0-1 @ 7.09%
1-2 @ 5.92%
0-2 @ 3.6%
1-3 @ 2%
2-3 @ 1.65%
0-3 @ 1.22%
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 23.32%