AFC Champions League | Group Stage
Sep 23, 2020 at 4pm UK
Azadi Stadium

Esteghlal
3 - 0
Al-Ahli

Ghaedi (29'), Karimi (38'), Diabate (54')
Milic (30')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Abdul Ghani (49')
Coverage of the AFC Champions League Group Stage clash between Esteghlal and Al-Ahli.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Esteghlal win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Al-Ahli had a probability of 33.88% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.

The most likely scoreline for a Esteghlal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.09%). The likeliest Al-Ahli win was 0-1 (11.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Esteghlal would win this match.

Result
EsteghlalDrawAl-Ahli
37.76%28.36%33.88%
Both teams to score 46.6%
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
40.33%59.66%
Over 3.5Under 3.5
20.02%79.98%
Esteghlal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.52%30.48%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.31%66.69%
Al-Ahli Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.03%32.97%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.45%69.55%
Score Analysis
    Esteghlal 37.75%
    Al-Ahli 33.88%
    Draw 28.34%
EsteghlalDrawAl-Ahli
1-0 @ 11.93%
2-1 @ 7.87%
2-0 @ 7.09%
3-1 @ 3.12%
3-0 @ 2.81%
3-2 @ 1.73%
4-1 @ 0.93%
Other @ 2.28%
Total : 37.75%
1-1 @ 13.24%
0-0 @ 10.04%
2-2 @ 4.37%
Other @ 0.7%
Total : 28.34%
0-1 @ 11.15%
1-2 @ 7.35%
0-2 @ 6.19%
1-3 @ 2.72%
0-3 @ 2.29%
2-3 @ 1.62%
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 33.88%

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