An excellent week in both league and cup sees third-placed AC Milan in buoyant mood ahead of Sunday's early kickoff at home to struggling Sampdoria.
The Scudetto contenders followed Serie A victory in the Derby with smooth progress to the Coppa Italia semi-finals, so will be intent on extending that streak at San Siro against a Samp side which posted just their sixth win of the season last weekend.
Match preview
© Reuters
Capping a fine few days which have got their February off to a flier, Milan reached the last four of the Coppa Italia for the third time in four seasons with a comprehensive 4-0 win over Lazio on Wednesday evening.
After the mercurial Rafael Leao got the Rossoneri off the mark against Maurizio Sarri's men, French forward Olivier Giroud bagged his second brace in the space of four days to seal a semi-final clash with city rivals Inter next month.
That two-legged encounter will be awaited keenly by fans of both teams and neutrals alike, following last Saturday's absorbing Derby della Madonnina, in which Stefano Pioli's side bravely came from behind to end Inter's long unbeaten league run - Giroud striking twice in the final 15 minutes.
As a result, Milan have earned 52 points so far in Serie A - lifting them within one of their Nerazzurro rivals, having played a game more - and the second city giants have only managed such an impressive tally at this stage three times previously since the turn of the century.
On all but one of the previous occasions they went on to lift the title, but of course last year they faded to finish distant runners-up behind Inter.
Despite stumbling a little more frequently than they have been accustomed to at San Siro this season - including a recent 2-1 reverse at lowly Spezia - the Rossoneri have found the net at a rate of more than two goals per game and can boast the league's second most prolific attack.
Pioli will hope to deploy such firepower to its maximum effect in the coming weeks, as Milan embark on a softer streak of fixtures - they face Salernitana and then Udinese after hosting Sampdoria - which precede the start of a March schedule which sees them play the first leg of their cup semi and travel to Scudetto rivals Napoli.
© Reuters
Returning to a familiar face in the dugout, Sampdoria finally brought a halt to their five-game losing streak last weekend, when they stunned mid-table Sassuolo 4-0 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Following the doomed reign of former boss Roberto D'Aversa, a comeback for former Samp favourite Marco Giampaolo had the desired effect in his second game back at the helm, as old stagers Francesco Caputo and Antonio Candreva scored at either end of the match, and January signings Andrea Conti and Stefano Sensi found the net in between.
Though his journey since leaving Marassi back in 2019 has seen his stock seriously devalued, Giampaolo hopes that a return to Genoa will help restore his reputation following unmitigated failures at both Milan and Torino.
However, his task of building on three much-needed points, which took the Blucerchiati five clear of the drop zone, will be a particularly tough one - even if Sampdoria have avoided defeat in their last two league clashes with the Rossoneri at San Siro.
Seeking to prolong that run to three successive matches for the first time since 1987, the Ligurian outfit - who lost 1-0 in the reverse fixture on the opening day - will surely need to ride their luck and hope to withstand the attacking might of their hosts.
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- W
- D
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
Team News
© Reuters
While both Zlatan Ibrahimovic (Achilles) and Fode Ballo-Toure (muscular) will not be involved for Milan due to injury, Olivier Giroud is set to continue in the former's place up front, having scored seven times in Serie A this season - each one at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza.
Indeed, though Ibrahimovic has previously scored seven league goals against Sampdoria - including two braces - without the veteran striker in the team, the Rossoneri have not lost a league game this term. Their win percentage of 89% actually drops to 53% with the Swedish star in the side.
Though he recently signed a contract extension at the club, flying full-back Theo Hernandez will not be able to celebrate renewing his commitment with an appearance on Sunday, as he must serve a suspension for his late sending-off in the Derby last week. Therefore, Davide Calabria could shift across to left-back as cover.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, completed the signing of 35-year-old playmaker Sebastian Giovinco this week, and he joins an ageing cast up front for the visitors; potentially appearing alongside 'Ciccio' Caputo and Antonio Candreva, with 38-year-old Fabio Quagliarella currently unavailable.
Albin Ekdal returns following a one-match suspension and contends with Tomas Rincon for a start, while on-loan Inter midfielder Stefano Sensi and Andrea Conti - formerly of Milan - will feature too.
The trip to Lombardy comes to soon for long-term absentee Mikkel Damsgaard, but centre-back Maya Yoshida is poised to return to the squad following a hamstring injury - most likely starting on the bench.
AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Florenzi, Romagnoli, Tomori, Calabria; Tonali, Bennacer; Messias, Diaz, Leao; Giroud
Sampdoria possible starting lineup:
Falcone; Bereszynski, Magnani, Colley, Conti; Candreva, Thorsby, Rincon, Murru; Sensi; Caputo
We say: AC Milan 2-0 Sampdoria
Though recent arrivals may have freshened things up at the club, Sampdoria have failed to score in either of their last two away matches in Serie A, and could be set to do so for three successive games for the first time since 2018.
Milan have begun to recover from the loss of defensive lynchpin Simon Kjaer in the back four, and with Giroud possibly starting one of his hot streaks, there is significant potential for goals up front.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 75.07%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 8.79%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.46%) and 3-0 (10.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.67%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
