Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SSV Ulm win with a probability of 37.71%. A win for Jahn Regensburg had a probability of 36.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a SSV Ulm win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.36%) and 2-0 (6.2%). The likeliest Jahn Regensburg win was 0-1 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SSV Ulm would win this match.