Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 37.52%. A win for Kaiserslautern had a probability of 37.25% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.37%) and 0-2 (5.97%). The likeliest Kaiserslautern win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood.