Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Pauli win with a probability of 46.7%. A win for Nuremberg had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a St Pauli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Nuremberg win was 0-1 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Pauli would win this match.

Result
St Pauli	Draw	Nuremberg
46.7% ( 0.02)	24.82% ( 0.01)	28.49% ( -0.03)

Both teams to score 55.33% (

-0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

52.52% (

-0.05)

47.48% (

0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.31% (

-0.05)

69.69% (

0.05)

St Pauli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.61% (

-0.01)

20.39% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.19% (

-0.02)

52.81% (

0.02)

Nuremberg Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.5% (

-0.05)

30.5% (

0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.28% (

-0.05)

66.72% (

0.06)

Score Analysis

St Pauli 46.7%

Nuremberg 28.49%

Draw 24.81%

St Pauli	Draw	Nuremberg
1-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.34% ( 0) 2-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.95% ( -0) 3-0 @ 4.17% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.94% ( -0) 4-1 @ 1.97% ( -0) 4-0 @ 1.66% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 46.7%	1-1 @ 11.74% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.22% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.81%	0-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.97% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.76% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.19% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0) Other @ 3.06% Total : 28.49%