Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 54.92%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 22.75% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.05%) and 2-0 (8.59%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 1-2 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.