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Preview: Stan Wawrinka vs. Novak Djokovic - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Wimbledon third-round match between Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic, including predictions and their head-to-head record.

Old foes Stan Wawrinka and Novak Djokovic will meet at Wimbledon for the first time in their careers in the third-round on Friday.

Three-time Grand Slam champion Wawrinka stunned Djokovic in the 2015 French Open final and 2016 US Open final, but Djokovic has won 11 Grand Slam titles since then to move one clear of Rafael Nadal.


Match preview

Switzerland's Stan Wawrinka reacts during his second round match against Reilly Opelka on July 3, 2019© Reuters

Indeed, Wimbledon remains Wawrinka's missing piece of the jigsaw as far as completing the Grand Slam set is concerned, having also defeated Nadal in the 2014 Australian Open final.

Considering that the Swiss maestro only has 13 other ATP Tour titles to his name, no one could ever question whether he has maximised his undoubted talent levels, even if chronic knee and foot injuries appear to have caught up with him in recent years.

However, after recently climbing his way back into the top 100 in the rankings, the 38-year-old booked his place in the third-round of a Grand Slam for the first time in over three years by defeating recent French Open quarter-finalist Tomas Martin Etcheverry in four sets on Thursday.

Despite beating Djokovic at every Grand Slam except Wimbledon during his career, Wawrinka played down his chances of causing a major upset when they meet each other for the first time at the All England Club on Friday. "Hopefully I can make a competitive match, but, if you will look at recent results, I don't really stand a chance," the Swiss joked moments after defeating Etcheverry.

Novak Djokovic in action at Wimbledon on July 3, 2023© Reuters

Although Djokovic will understandably view his forthcoming opponent's comments as mild-mannered mind games, particularly given his bad experiences of playing against Wawrinka across five sets in the past, the No. 2 seed will clearly be expected to extend his winning streak at Wimbledon to a phenomenal record of 31 matches.

The 36-year-old, who is aiming to become the first men's singles player since Rod Laver to complete the calendar year Grand Slam after already triumphing at the Australian Open and French Open, has barely moved out of second gear to reach this stage by defeating Pedro Machin and Jordan Thompson in straight sets on Monday and Wednesday respectively.

That said, all six sets have lasted at least nine games each, with Djokovic requiring the assistance of a tie-breaker in both matches. His second-round match against Thompson, who is ranked 71st in the word, was particularly serve heavy, with the Australian winning 79% of points on his first serve yet unable to force a single break point against his legendary opponent.

Should Wawrinka find anything resembling his form of yesteryear, Djokovic may need to perform at a much higher level if he is to prevail in straight sets once again, but it is extremely difficult to envisage him failing to reach the second week of Wimbledon for the 13th time in his last 14 attempts.


Tournament so far

Stan Wawrinka:

First round: vs. Emil Ruusuvuori 7-5 7-5 6-4
Second round: vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry 6-3 4-6 6-4 6-2

Novak Djokovic:

First round: vs. Pedro Machin 6-3 6-3 7-6(4)
Second round: vs. Jordan Thompson 6-3 7-6(4) 7-5


Head To Head

Novak Djokovic of Serbia retires in the fourth-round match against Stan Wawrinka of Switzerland on day seven of the 2019 US Open tennis tournament at USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center on September 1, 2019© Reuters

US Open (2019) - Last-16: Wawrinka wins 6-4 7-5 2-1 RET
US Open (2016) - Final: Wawrinka wins 6-7(1) 6-4 7-5 6-3
French Open (2015) - Final: Wawrinka wins 4-6 6-4 6-3 6-4
Australian Open (2015) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 7-6(1) 3-6 6-4 4-6 6-0
Australian Open (2014) - Quarter-final: Wawrinka wins 2-6 6-4 6-2 3-6 9-7
US Open (2013) - Semi-final: Djokovic wins 2-6 7-6(4) 3-6 6-3 6-4
Australian Open (2013) - Last-16: Djokovic wins 1-6 7-5 6-4 6-7(5) 12-10
US Open (2012) - Last-16: Djokovic wins 6-4 6-1 3-1 RET

Friday's third-round meeting will be the 27th time these two great players have faced each other on the ATP Tour, with Djokovic winning 20 to Wawrinka's six since their first match against each other almost 17 years ago.

The above showcases their previous eight meetings at Grand Slams, with that particular record shared at four wins apiece. Excluding one injury-enforced retirement apiece, neither player has ever defeated one another in straight sets at a Grand Slam, suggesting that we could be in store for an excellent third-round encounter should Wawrinka be able to roll back the years.


SM words green background

We say: Djokovic to win in four sets

As touched upon, these two share plenty of history together, with very few players getting the better of Djokovic on the big occasions as frequently as Wawrinka has managed over the years.

However, there is little doubt that the Swiss is not the force he once was, with injuries and age taking their toll on him. This is the first time that he has reached the third-round at Wimbledon in eight years, and while we can envisage him making things interesting by taking a set, Djokovic should have far too much physicality and composure for him overall.

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