Sao Paulo welcome Sport Recife to the Estadio do Morumbi for the second leg of their Copa do Brasil last 16 clash on Thursday night.
The hosts bring a healthy advantage into this second leg, after winning 2-0 in Recife two weeks ago.
Match preview
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Those two late goals a fortnight ago leave Sao Paulo in the ascendancy to progress in a competition where they have remarkably seen very little success in the past.
They have progressed beyond the last 16 in the past three seasons, but despite winning four continental and three international cup crowns since the inception of the Copa do Brasil, the club has never won Brazil's domestic cup competition.
Dorival Junior's side made hard work of reaching this stage too, needing a second-half goal from Wellington Rato in the second leg to seal their spot in the last 16, beating second-tier Ituano 1-0 on aggregate.
Sao Paulo are in excellent form ahead of this encounter though, winning their last four matches as part of an unbeaten run that now stretches back 12 games.
That has led to a solid start to the domestic season where they lie third, having collected 15 points from their opening eight games so far.
Junior's former club represent their next obstacle, but Fabinho's red card on the hour mark in the first leg means Recife now have a mountain to climb in the second leg.
The two goals which soon followed the dismissal mean the 2008 winners are now on the brink of elimination, but reaching this stage is a massive improvement on their last three seasons.
Three consecutive first-round exits to lower-league opponents summed up the dire straits the club found themselves in, hence why they are now playing Serie B football again this season.
After failing to win promotion back to the top flight at the first time of asking last year, they have made a decent start this time around, sitting five points off top spot with two games in hand.
A thrilling tie against Coritiba saw them reach this stage, as a topsy-turvy first leg ended 3-3 before Recife ran out 2-0 winners at home in the return leg.
That draw in the first leg though has contributed to a four-game winless run away from home, making this task appear even more arduous.
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Team News
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Sao Paulo have an eye-watering injury list heading into this second leg, with as many as 11 players out injured.
Giuliano Galoppo and Nahuel Ferraresi are both out long term with ACL injuries, while Talles Costa and Joao Moreira are also both missing but with less serious knee issues.
Defenders Robert Arboleda, Welington and Igor Vinicius are among those also out, along with Rodrigo Nestor and Andre Anderson.
Alexandre Pato has recently arrived, returning to the club where he spent two years in the mid-2010s and another two between 2019 and 2021, but he is currently injured having not featured since last August.
Another veteran striker at the tail end of his career will line up for the opponents though, as Vagner Love has been in great form, netting five goals in his last five games for Recife.
Naturalised Bulgarian international Wanderson featured in the first leg and scored against Coritiba in the last round, but he missed their win over ABC on Sunday.
Fabinho is suspended after his red card in the first leg, and joins a number of players who will miss out due to injuries.
Facu Labandeira, Igor Carius and Matheus Vargas are among the other players also sidelined for this one.
Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Rafael; Rafinha, Alan Franco, Lucas Beraldo, Patryck; Alisson, Pablo Maia, Luciano; Wellington Rato, Calleri, Araujo
Sport Recife possible starting lineup:
Renan; Eduardo, Alisson Cassiano, Sabino, Felipinho; Fabio Matheus, Ronaldo, Jorginho; Fabricio Daniel, Vagner Love, Luciano Juba
We say: Sao Paulo 3-0 Sport Recife
With a healthy first leg lead and confidence taken from recent positive results, Sao Paulo should have too much for second-tier Recife, who need a minor miracle to turn this tie around.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 54.68%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Sport Recife had a probability of 21.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 2-1 (9.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.3%), while for a Sport Recife win it was 0-1 (6.56%).
