Mainz have began the season in disastrous form, collecting only three points from nine matches to sit bottom of the Bundesliga, while Hertha would have expected to be higher than mid-table after 11 games in the second tier.
As such, neither team are likely to play with much confidence on Wednesday, with their destiny in their respective leagues considered to be a higher priority than the DFB-Pokal. However, we expect Hertha to relish the challenge of facing a side competing above them and secure a narrow win.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 43.21%. A win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.15%) and 0-2 (6.07%). The likeliest Hertha Berlin win was 2-1 (7.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Hertha Berlin would win this match.
0.52) 
-0.64) 
