Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 77.75%. A draw had a probability of 15.2% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 7.05%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.61%) and 3-0 (11.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.11%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (3%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
Result | ||
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
77.75% ( 0.16) | 15.2% ( -0.11) | 7.05% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 39.07% ( 0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.16% ( 0.28) | 43.84% ( -0.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.77% ( 0.27) | 66.23% ( -0.27) |
AC Milan Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.64% ( 0.11) | 9.36% ( -0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.47% ( 0.25) | 31.53% ( -0.25) |
Sampdoria Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
43.1% ( 0.04) | 56.9% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
11.01% ( 0.02) | 88.98% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
AC Milan | Draw | Sampdoria |
2-0 @ 14.94% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 12.61% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 11.79% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.05) 3-1 @ 6.65% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 3.94% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 1.87% ( 0.02) 6-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.11% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.92% Total : 77.74% | 1-1 @ 7.11% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 2.38% Other @ 0.38% Total : 15.2% | 0-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.05% Total : 7.05% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Inter Milan | 37 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 87 | 20 | 67 | 93 |
2 | AC Milan | 37 | 22 | 8 | 7 | 73 | 46 | 27 | 74 |
3 | Bologna | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 51 | 27 | 24 | 67 |
4 | Juventus | 36 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 67 |
5 | Atalanta BCAtalanta | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 66 |
6 | Roma | 37 | 18 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 63 |
7 | Lazio | 37 | 18 | 6 | 13 | 48 | 38 | 10 | 60 |
8 | Fiorentina | 36 | 15 | 9 | 12 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 54 |
9 | Torino | 37 | 13 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 53 |
10 | Napoli | 37 | 13 | 13 | 11 | 55 | 48 | 7 | 52 |
11 | Genoa | 37 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 46 |
12 | Monza | 37 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 45 |
13 | Lecce | 37 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 32 | 54 | -22 | 37 |
14 | CagliariCagliari | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 40 | 65 | -25 | 36 |
15 | FrosinoneFrosinone | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 68 | -24 | 35 |
16 | Hellas VeronaHellas Verona | 36 | 8 | 10 | 18 | 34 | 48 | -14 | 34 |
17 | Udinese | 37 | 5 | 19 | 13 | 36 | 53 | -17 | 34 |
18 | Empoli | 37 | 8 | 9 | 20 | 27 | 53 | -26 | 33 |
19 | SassuoloSassuolo | 37 | 7 | 8 | 22 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 29 |
R | Salernitana | 36 | 2 | 10 | 24 | 28 | 76 | -48 | 16 |
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