Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jelena Ostapenko - Wimbledon prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka can move a step closer to clutching her first Wimbledon title with a victory on Friday over Jelena Ostapenko in round three of this year's tournament.

The top-seeded player on the women’s draw defeated McCartney Kessler 6-1 7-6 (11-9) to advance to this stage, while Ostapenko earned a straightforward triumph over Antonia Ruzic 6-2 6-0.

Match preview

Everything has gone as expected for Aryna Sabalenka thus far at the All England Club, as she has yet to lose a set.

A three-time semi-finalist at this event, the Belarusian can advance beyond the third round of a major singles tournament on Friday for a 15th time in her last 15 Grand Slam appearances, having missed the 2022 and 2024 editions of Wimbledon.

This match will mark her fourth appearance in the third round at Wimbledon, and Sabalenka has never lost a set in this phase of the tournament.

She has only registered three double faults in her two matches combined and converted eight of her 14 combined break-point opportunities.

Her first serve has been particularly sharp, winning 83% of those in her opener and 77% on Wednesday.

Sabalenka has won over 80% of her service games across all surfaces this year while also winning more than 40% of her return games.

For the most part, things are clicking for Jelena Ostapenko, who has recaptured some of her Wimbledon magic from years ago.

The semi-finalist at this event in 2018 has converted a total of 12 break points at the tournament this year, while only conceding a combined four aces overall.

Ostapenko improved tremendously in numerous categories from her first to second match at Wimbledon in 2026, winning 83% of her first serves on Wednesday after winning 69% in her opener.

Against Sabalenka, she cannot afford to gift any free points, and in round two, the Latvian registered five double faults, eight fewer than she had in her opener.

The 2017 French Open singles champion has been eliminated in two of her last three third-round Grand Slam matches, but has won her last two third-round encounters at Wimbledon.

So far in 2026, she has won over 60% of her first serves and more than 65% of her service games overall.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Teodora Kostovic 6-2 6-3

Second round: vs. McCartney Kessler 6-1 7-6 (11-9)

Jelena Ostapenko:

First round: vs. Harriet Dart 6-3 3-6 6-4

Second round: vs. Antonia Ruzic 6-2 6-0

Head To Head

Zhengzhou Open (2019) - Round of 16: Sabalanka wins 6-1 6-2

Dubai Open (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 2-6 6-1 6-1

Italian Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-2 6-4

Stuttgart Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Ostapenko wins 6-4 6-1

When these two first squared off in China, it was no contest as Sabalenka won 67% of her first serves while her Latvian opponent committed 10 double faults.

Four years later, Sabalenka did it the hard way, coming from a set down to win, with six break points converted in that match.

The Belarusian took care of business when these two met in Rome two years ago, registering just one double fault while winning 81% of her first serves.

Last year, Ostapenko finally vanquished Sabalenka, converting six break points while winning 81% of her first serves to triumph in straight sets.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Ostapenko is prone to making her share of unforced errors, and Sabalenka thrives off her opponents' mistakes, which is why we believe the top seed will advance comfortably.