Preview: US Open: Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Aiming to be the first active American player to reach the quarter-finals of every Grand Slam, Tommy Paul takes on in-form defending US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz in Sunday's fourth-round match.

The 20th seed overcame Alexander Bublik in five thrilling sets to set up a ninth ATP Tour meeting with Alcaraz, who did not have it all his own way in Friday's victory over Wu Yibing.

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz match preview

Alcaraz entered the fourth Slam of 2026 amid considerable uncertainty, having not played competitive tennis since April, but the defending champion has played admirably in rounds one, two and three to reach the last 16 in Queens.

By beating Roman Safiulin, Jaime Faria and Wu Yibing, the Spanish sensation has now won 10 consecutive matches in Flushing and 17 at Majors overall, including his run to the Australian Open title in January to seal the Career Grand Slam Down Under.

Friday's success was not a typical Alcaraz performance, as his opponent made things awkward with heavy hitting that created several openings on the 23-year-old's serve.

However, the seven-time Slam champion did likewise on the Chinese player's deliveries, ultimately converting more of his chances in key moments to see off Wu 6-3, 6-4, 6-1.

Having now improved to a 90% win rate in New York, Alcaraz seeks another victory to improve his 27-3 record at the event and advance to yet another quarter-final match at this level, which would be his sixth in a row since 2024's shock second-round exit in the United States.

Marathon man Paul stands in his way, with the American entering Sunday's tussle fresh off a turnaround victory over Bublik to avenge last year's defeat to the Kazakhstani star.

After trailing against the 15th seed, Paul faced another third-round exit at his home Major; however, he responded commendably to secure sets four and five.

Now into the fourth round in Flushing for the third time, the 29-year-old hopes to finally break new ground by reaching the quarters in Queens.

Previous runs to this stage have ended in defeat to Ben Shelton in 2023 and to eventual champion Jannik Sinner in 2024, and the former world No. 8 faces an uphill challenge to become the only active player from his homeland to have reached the last eight at every leading event.

That would be easier said than done, given his losing record against the Spaniard, who has shown a higher level than anticipated in his bid to claim an eighth Grand Slam crown.

Tournament so far

Tommy Paul:

First round: vs. Coleman Wong 6-7(3) 6-1 6-3 6-3

Second round: vs. Dino Prizmic 6-2 6-3 5-7 6-4

Third round: vs. Alexander Bublik 6-4 3-6 6-7(4) 6-1 6-3

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: vs. Roman Safiullin 6-4 6-4 6-4

Second round: vs. Jaime Faria 4-6 6-0 6-3 6-2

Third round: vs. Wu Yibing 6-3 6-4 6-1

Tommy Paul vs. Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head

Australian Open (2026) - Fourth round: Alcaraz 7-6(6) 6-4 7-5

French Open (2025) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-0 6-1 6-4

Paris Olympics (2024) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 6-3 7-6(7)

Wimbledon (2024) - Quarter-final: Alcaraz 5-7 6-4 6-2 6-2

Cincinnati Masters (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 7-6(6) 6-7(0) 6-3

Canadian Open (2023) - Quarter-final: Paul 6-3 4-6 6-3

Miami Open (2023) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 6-4 6-4

Canadian Open (2022) - Round of 32: Paul 6-7(4) 7-6(7) 6-3

Having lost two of their opening three meetings, both defeats coming in Canada in 2022 and 2023, Alcaraz has now defeated Paul in five consecutive meetings.

Three of those wins have come at Slams, with Alcaraz needing a turnaround to beat the 29-year-old at Wimbledon before sealing straight-set wins at the 2025 French Open and this year's Australian Open, and he now seeks to complete the set of victories at Majors against the former world No. 8.

The second seed has also notably claimed the last 11 sets in this matchup, further emphasising his dominance over the 20th seed ahead of their ninth tour-level tussle.

We say: Alcaraz to win in four sets

Alcaraz's bid to become the first man to retain the US Open title since Roger Federer's 2004-2008 five-peat is going better than planned, with the Spanish sensation's level undoubtedly impressive to reach the last 16.

While he may drop a set to Paul for the first time since 2024's Wimbledon matchup, the defending champion is backed to outclass the home hope and secure a quarter-final berth in Queens for the fifth time.