Preview: Naomi Osaka vs. Elise Mertens- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Facing each other in a Grand Slam singles event for the first time, Naomi Osaka and Elise Mertens will be seeking a spot in the last 16 of the US Open on Saturday.

To get to this stage, Osaka outlasted Katerina Siniakova in three sets, 6-2 5-7 6-1, while Mertens defeated Maria Timofeeva 6-2 7-6 (7-5).

Match preview

It took her a decisive third set, but Osaka in the end persevered in round two, advancing to the third round of a Grand Slam singles event for a sixth successive occasion.

The 13th seed has been dominant on her serve all tournament long, with 11 aces in both of her encounters.

Meanwhile, she has won at least 75% of her first serves to this point of the US Open, while only conceding three aces overall.

As for the return game, she has managed to convert 10 of her break point opportunities with 40 or more receiving points in her two outings.

Osaka has not lost a third-round singles match at Flushing Meadows since 2021, eliminating Daria Kasatkina in three sets at this stage a year ago.

The two-time US Open champion has advanced beyond the third round in three of her last four major tournament appearances on the singles draw.

We have seen two solid all-around matches for Elise Mertens so far at this tournament as she seeks to advance into round four of the US Open on Saturday for the first time since 2024.

The Belgian has lost two of her last three third-round affairs at this event but won her only two Grand Slam singles outings at that stage this year.

Her overall service game is a big reason why she is still here, with the 30-year-old winning over 75% of her first and second serves in both of her matches.

Mertens has converted six of her break-point opportunities overall while giving up only two break points thus far.

In round two, she was much less error-prone, committing just three double faults after registering six in round one.

Her last two defeats at this stage of the US Open occurred despite Mertens winning the opening set, including a loss against Cristina Busca in this phase last year.

Tournament so far

Naomi Osaka:

First round: vs. Anastaasia Zakharova 7-6 (8-6) 7-6 (7-3)

Second round: vs. Katerina Siniakova 6-2 5-7 6-1

Elise Mertens:

First round: vs. Kaitlin Quevedo 6-4 6-4

Second round: vs. Maria Timofeeva 6-2 7-6 (7-5)

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2017) - Round of 32: Mertens wins 6-1 1-6 6-4

Japan Open (2019) - Semi-finals: Osaka wins 6-4 6-1

Cincinnati Open (2020) - Semi-finals: Osaka wins 6-2 7-6

Gippsland Open (2021) - Semi-finals: Mertens wins in a walkover

Miami Open (2021) - Round of 16: Osaka wins 6-3 6-3

Indian Wells Masters (2024) - Round of 32: Mertens wins 7-5 6-4

Hertogenbosch Open (2024) - Round of 32: Osaka wins 6-2 6-4

National Bank Open (2024) - Round of 32: Mertens wins 6-3 6-4

Bad Homburg Open (2026) - Round of 16: Osaka wins 6-3 6-3

National Bank Open (2026) - Round of 32: Osaka wins 6-1 6-2

After they had each won once in their first two meetings, Osaka took the series lead in Cincinnati, converting five break points while Mertens only converted three of her 21 opportunities on that occasion.

In Australia in 2021, Mertens evened the singles series between them, winning via a walkover en route to lifting the trophy in the next match.

When they met again in Miami that year, Osaka reclaimed the series lead, as Mertens registered nine double faults, while the Japanese star won 66% of her first serves.

Mertens claimed another victory three years later, converting five break point opportunities and winning 64% of her second serves at the Indian Wells Masters.

In the Netherlands in 2024, Osaka won a remarkable 90% of her first serves versus the Belgian while converting three break points in a comfortable victory.

The last meeting between the two occurred in Canada this year, when Osaka triumped again, winning 86% of her first serves while converting half of her break-point opportunities.

We say: Mertens to win in three sets

She hasn't had much success against her lately, but we have a hunch that Mertens is due and will be on point with her serve and groundstrokes to win a close one.