Preview: Jessica Pegula vs. Leylah Fernandez- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

In a rematch from this year’s Miami Open, Jessica Pegula and Leylah Fernandez will square off in round three at the US Open on Friday.

Earlier this week, Pegula came away with a comfortable 6-3 6-1 victory over Sofia Kenin, while her upcoming Canadian opponent beat Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1.

Match preview

After two rounds at Flushing Meadows, Jessica Pegula looks primed to make another long run at this event, failing to lose a single set thus far.

The three-time Grand Slam singles semi-finalist and the US Open runner-up from two years ago can make round four of this tournament on Friday for a fourth successive occasion.

She has gotten to this stage in part because of her serve, winning 92% of her first serves in her opener and 86% against Kenin.

Meanwhile, the 32-year-old has yet to concede a single break point, while converting four in both of her matches so far.

Equally impressive is that she has played relatively error-free tennis, registering only three double faults in the tournament.

Pegula has gone on to win her last four third-round affairs at Grand Slam singles tournaments and has not lost a match at this stage of the US Open since Belinda Bencic beat her in straight sets in 2021.

Following a series of disappointing results on the Grand Slam circuit this year, Leylah Fernandez seems to have regained her confidence at this event.

She was eliminated in round one of her first three Grand Slam singles tournaments in 2026 but is through to the third round at the US Open for a second successive year.

On Friday she can end a three-match losing run in round three of a major singles tournament and advance beyond that stage at Flushing Meadows for the first time since finishing as the runner-up in 2021.

So far at this year’s US Open, the Montreal native has been strong at the return game, converting a total of nine break points, including six of her eight opportunities in round two.

Fernandez has won over 65% of her first serves in both of her matches thus far but has not won more than 54% of her second ones in either outing.

She has never lost a third-round Grand Slam singles match after winning the opening set, doing so only once before, at the 2022 French Open, when she reached the quarter-finals.

Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1

Leylah Fernandez:

First round: vs. Zhang Shuai 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Mananchaya Sawangkaew 6-4 6-1

Head To Head

Miami Open (2024) - Round of 32: Pegula wins 7-5 6-4

Cincinnati Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Pegula wins 7-5 6-7 7-6

Mubadala City Open (2025) - Round of 16: Fernandez wins 6-3 1-6 7-5

Miami Open (2026) - Round of 32: Pegula wins 6-2 6-2

When these two first squared off in South Beach two years ago, the American converted five of her break point opportunities and won 38 receiving points en route to victory.

Later that year in Cincinnati, Pegula captured a close one, converting one more break point (seven) than Fernandez while she overcame seven double faults.

The following year, it was the young Canadian's turn to win, as Fernandez won 75% of her first serves and overcame nine double faults as she eventually lifted the trophy.

In Miami earlier this year, Pegula dominated Fernandez, winning 88% of her first serves, while the latter won just 64% of hers as the American won comfortably.

We say: Pegula to win in three sets

Both ladies have been extremely sharp so far, but we are leaning slightly towards Pegula, who not only has the home crowd in her corner but also has been a little better in tense moments.