Preview: US Open: Jessica Pegula vs. Sofia Kenin - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off coming through a battle of former Grand Slam champions in round one, Sofia Kenin takes on 2024 US Open finalist Jessica Pegula in Wednesday's second round.

Kenin beat veteran Venus Williams in the early hours of Monday but faces a more daunting prospect in Pegula, who recently made it to the finals in Washington and Cincinnati and is a firm favourite to reach the last eight or semi-finals in New York.

Jessica Pegula vs. Sofia Kenin match preview

It was effectively business as usual for Pegula in New York on Sunday as the 2024 runner-up dispatched Elena-Gabriela Ruse 6-3, 6-2.

Not since 2019's tournament-opening loss to Alize Cornet has the American exited early at Flushing Meadows, falling in straight sets to the Frenchwoman seven years ago, which came three years after she won just two games in a first-round loss to Agnieszka Radwanska.

A late bloomer, the 32-year-old has enjoyed more success in Queens over the last four years, reaching the quarter-final in three of those appearances and advancing to the last four once before making the title match in 2024.

Pegula's latest victory means that she has claimed 10 Grand Slam match wins in consecutive seasons — 2025 and 2026 — after turning 30, emulating Serena Williams's 2018-2019 feat.

Now, the third seed seeks her 11th win in 2026 to advance to the third round, where Mananchaya Sawangkaew or Leylah Annie Fernandez awaits.

Standing in the 2024 runner-up's way is Kenin, setting up a rematch of their 2024 encounter that Kenin lost but hopes to avenge this year.

The 27-year-old took on Williams on Monday morning in the latest start to a match at the tournament, and they could have finished as the latest match too had Kenin not saved a plethora of set points in the second set.

The 46-year-old held three set points on Kenin's serve at 5-4 and also led 6-2 in the second-set shootout, but the 2020 Australian Open champion held her nerve in both situations to avoid a deciding set.

The wildcard's reward for that victory is a seventh meeting with Pegula on the WTA Tour, but she faces the challenge of outdoing her recent performances at the leading events.

Kenin has yet to progress beyond the second round at any Grand Slam in 2026 and indeed at the last five Majors since reaching the third round at the 2025 French Open.

Indeed, not since 2020 has the one-time Slam winner progressed past the second round at her home Slam, when she reached the last 16, with subsequent appearances ending in the first or second round.

Those statistics highlight the uphill challenge ahead of facing the 11-time WTA champion on Wednesday as she seeks back-to-back all-American victories in Flushing.

Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula vs. Sofia Kenin head-to-head

Pegula heads into Wednesday's match against Kenin leading their head-to-head 4-2 and on a two-match winning run against her compatriot.

The 32-year-old notably secured a straight-sets win over the 2020 Australian Open winner two years ago en route to reaching the tournament's title match before falling to Aryna Sabalenka.

Kenin had won their previous Grand Slam meeting at the 2021 French Open, although Pegula has since become a different player, effectively disregarding that encounter.

Kenin, a former world No. 4, has yet to beat a top-10 player in two tries this year, losing to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Amanda Anisimova in Brisbane and Wimbledon, respectively, albeit taking Anisimova to a decider at SW19.

A deeper look at the world No. 110's record against the elite reads one win in her last nine against the leading stars, stressing how much of a favourite Pegula is in their second-round match.

We say: Pegula to win in two sets

Having reached the Washington and Cincinnati title matches, albeit losing to Alexandra Eala and Coco Gauff respectively, Pegula is undeniably one of the in-form hard-court players entering the final Slam of 2026.

As such, the third seed is backed to take down her countrywoman Kenin in straight sets, avoiding her earliest exit in Queens since 2021 to reach the third round.