Preview: Jasmine Paolini vs. Lucrezia Stefanini- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

In an all-Italian matchup at the US Open, Jasmine Paolini will square off with Lucrezia Stefanini in round two of the singles draw on Tuesday.

Both women came away with three-set victories in their openers, with Paolini defeating Veronika Erjavec 6-3 3-6 6-4 and Stefanini ousting Dayana Yastremska 6-3 4-6 6-1.

Match preview

For a third consecutive year, Jasmine Paolini has advanced into the second round of this tournament, though Erjavec made her work for the victory this week.

In her opener, Paolini committed five double faults but converted seven break points, enabling her to come out on top.

Another win would propel her into round three of this tournament for a third successive occasion and put her one win away from her best-ever singles finish at the US Open in 2024.

Overall, she won 68% of her first serves in her opener despite hitting only three aces in the entire contest, which lasted just under two hours.

Only once in her career on the singles tour has she lost a second-round Grand Slam singles outing on the hard court, with Victoria Azarenka beating her in straight sets at that stage of the 2021 US Open.

Across all surfaces this year, Paolini has won over 65% of her service games but has won just over 35% of her return games in 2026.

A strong overall service game and countless errors from her opponent were enough to propel Lucrezia Stefanini into round two of a Grand Slam singles event for the second time.

The Italian did not hit a single ace, but still won 60% of her first serves, and 76% of her second ones, while Dayana Yastremska registered nine double faults.

To upset Paolini, she will need to be just as sharp in the return game as she was in her opener, converting five of her break point opportunities in round one.

She has a chance in this upcoming match to make the third round of a major singles tournament for the first time, losing in straight sets to Varvara Gracheva in round two of the 2023 Australian Open.

In 2026, Stefanini has won just over 50% of her serves across all surfaces and slightly more than half of her service games.

On the other hand, She has won just over 25% of her return games on all surfaces this year but converted 50% of her break points.

Tournament so far

Jasmine Paolini:

First round: vs. Veronika Erjavec 6-3 3-6 6-4

Lucrezia Stefanini:

First round: vs. Dayana Yastremska 6-3 4-6 6-1

Head To Head

Courmayeur Open (2021) - Round of 16: Paolini wins 6-4 7-5

The only previous meeting between these two occurred five years ago when Paolini won 83% of her second serves, with Stefanini only winning 53% of hers, while Paolini converted five of her six break-point opportunities to take the match.

We say: Paolini to win in two sets

While Paolini is at times her own worst enemy, she is far too strong on serve, while the number of shots she’s capable of making are far greater than what we believe Stefanini can throw her way.