Preview: US Open: Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

In what is likely to be a thrilling top-20 clash, Jakub Mensik and Learner Tien will face off in the US Open third round in New York for a place in the last 16.

Tien enters Saturday’s match fresh from halting Gael Monfils’s Grand Slam career, while one more victory for Mensik will see the Czech player break new ground at Flushing Meadows.

Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien match preview

Former Next Gen star Mensik has never advanced to the fourth round at Flushing Meadows, but he has a chance to break new ground on Saturday.

The Czech star’s previous three appearances saw him reach the third round twice and the second round once, and he now aims to be third-time lucky.

The world No. 18’s run to a third match follows encouraging runs during the North American hard-court swing, with last-16 runs in Washington and Cincinnati, sandwiching his Cincinnati quarter-final, to carry decent-to-good momentum into the final Slam of 2026.

Having dropped one set across two matches against opponents ranked outside the top 100 — Shintaro Mochizuki and Jurij Rodionov — a stern assignment awaits the big-serving former world No. 12 against his former Next Gen rival.

Success for Mensik would see him reach the fourth round of a Slam for only the third time, with previous such success coming this year in Australia and Paris, where he reached the fourth round and semi-final, respectively.

Standing in his way is Tien, who faced the unlikely prospect of lacking partisan support on home soil against Monfils on Thursday.

The current Next Gen champion, though, was undaunted, dispatching the veteran 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 to end the 40-year-old’s Grand Slam career under the lights at Louis Armstrong.

Yet to drop a set in New York, the 20-year-old’s admirable run in Queens has come on the back of reaching the semi-final in Canada in the lead-up to proceedings in New York, before falling to eventual champion Ben Shelton.

Tien notably got the better of Monfils during that run in Canada, where he asked for the 40-year-old’s autograph and then hoped the pair would meet before the veteran’s retirement at the end of the current season.

The two-time ATP champion got his wish on home soil and played smart tennis throughout until the closing stages, when he struggled to see out the match.

Having suffered a quartet of first-round exits in New York, this is all new to Tien, who has now claimed back-to-back victories at the US Open to reach the third round in Queens for the first time.

Now, the world No. 15 seeks one more to surge into the second week of the tournament, where Karen Khachanov or Benjamin Bonzi await in the last 16.

Tournament so far

Jakub Mensik:

First round: vs. Shintaro Mochizuki 6-1 6-4 7-5

Second round: vs. Jurij Rodionov 6-3 3-6 6-2 6-3

Learner Tien:

First round: vs. Nuno Borges 6-4 6-1 6-2

Second round: vs. Gael Monfils 6-3 6-4 6-3

Jakub Mensik vs. Learner Tien head-to-head

Next Gen ATP Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Tien 4-3(6) 4-3(3) 2-4 2-4 4-3(8)

Tien leads Mensik 1-0 on the ATP Tour, but that encounter was nearly two years ago at the Next Gen ATP Finals, when the match went the distance before the American triumphed.

Saturday’s tussle will mark the pair’s first proper meeting on the ATP Tour, and the fact that it comes at a Slam adds to the intrigue.

Both players have had mixed results against top-10 players over the past year, with Tien holding a 7-8 record, outdoing the Czech youngster’s 5-9.

Notably, all of Mensik’s five wins have come in 2026, in 11 matches against such opponents, level with Tien, who holds a 50% win rate after 10 matches against opponents in the top 20.

The American, though, has suffered three consecutive losses to Flavio Cobolli at Roland Garros, to Felix Auger-Aliassime in Halle, and, most recently, to Shelton in Canada, and he hopes to avoid a fourth straight top-20 loss against the world No. 18.

We say: Tien to win in four sets

Whatever happens on Saturday hinges on Tien withstanding Mensik’s power from the back of the court and returning well, especially on the Czech player’s first serve.

Apart from his struggle to close out his win over Monfils, Tien’s adeptness at playing cleaner, tighter tennis should stand him in good stead in their meeting, and we are backing the home hope to reach the fourth round for the first time, at Mensik’s expense.