Preview: Jasmine Paolini vs. Sorana Cirstea- US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

With a victory on Friday, Jasmine Paolini can advance to the fourth round of a Grand Slam singles event for the second time this year as she faces Sorana Cirstea in her third match at the 2026 US Open.

The Italian had little trouble advancing to this stage, defeating Lucrezia Stefanini 6-4 6-1, while Cirstea ousted Diane Parry 6-2 7-5.

Match preview

After a tough opener at this tournament, Paolini breezed through her second-round encounter, needing just over an hour and 15 minutes to advance.

A two-time Grand Slam finalist, Paolini won just 64% of her first serves in round two but captured an impressive 32 receiving points.

Her return game has been especially strong at Flushing Meadows this year, as she has converted a combined 13 break points in the tournament so far.

With a win on Friday, she would advance into the last 16 of this event on the singles draw for a second time in three years, with an opportunity to get to the quarter-finals for the first time at the US Open.

She has lost her last three third-round Grand Slam singles encounters on the hard court, including a straight-sets defeat to Iva Jovic at this year’s Australian Open.

Paolini has won her last two third-round singles matches in major tournaments when winning the opening set, after squandering a one-set lead to Elina Svitolina at that stage of the 2025 Aussie Open.

We are seeing the best of Sorana Cirstea early on in this tournament, as she is into the third round of the US Open for the third time this decade.

A victory for her on Friday would mark the second time she advances to at least the last 16 of a major singles tournament in 2026, after getting to the quarter-finals of the most recent French Open.

This will be her fifth appearance in the third round at Flushing Meadows, and the Romanian has been on the losing end in three of those previous four instances.

Cirstea has never lost a US Open third-round match when winning the opening set, ousting Elena Rybakina at this stage in 2023.

At the US Open this year, she has won over 70% of her first serves in both of her matches, while also picking up a combined 10 break points overall.

While she has only hit a combined four aces, the 36-year-old has only registered a total of four double faults at the tournament so far.

Tournament so far

Jasmine Paolini:

First round: vs. Veronika Erjavec 6-3 3-6 6-4

Second round: vs. Lucrezia Stefanini 6-4 6-1

Sorana Cirstea:

First round: vs. Julia Grabher 6-3 6-0

Second round: vs. Diane Parry 6-2 7-5

Head To Head

Zavarovalnica Sava Portoroz Open (2021) - Quarter-finals: Paolini wins 6-4 4-6 6-1

French Open (2023) - First Round: Paolini wins 7-5 2-6 6-2

Dubai Duty Free Championship (2024) - Semi-finals: Paolini wins 6-2 7-6

When these two first met five years ago, Paolini converted five break points to emerge victorious in a close three-set outing.

At Roland Garros in 2023, it was the Italian who won the day once again, thanks to her 50 receiving points while winning 68% of her first serves.

Two years ago, they met in the semi-finals in Dubai and Paolini won 59% of her first serves, and the only tiebreak to advance.

We say: Paolini to win in two sets

Paolini keeps finding a way, and we believe her aggressive groundstrokes will keep the older Cirstea guessing and propel the Italian to another victory.