Preview: US Open: Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Elena Rybakina is one win away from supplanting Aryna Sabalenka as world No. 1, but she must beat Qinwen Zheng in the US Open quarter-final to make history.

While the Kazakh star has yet to drop a set on her way to the last eight in New York for the first time, Zheng has shown undeniable powers of recovery to stun two Grand Slam champions, and the Paris Olympic gold medalist will look to claim another scalp on Wednesday.

Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina match preview

Zheng has taken the scenic route, but the Chinese superstar is back where she feels she belongs: a Grand Slam quarter-final after an injury-ridden 12 or so months.

A former world No. 4, a position she reached in June 2025, the Olympic gold medalist had last season interrupted by a right elbow injury that kept her out of last year's tournament in New York.

Having reached the last eight in Queens in 2023 and 2024, the 23-year-old is back among the elite eight at a Major for the first time since last year's French Open run, but the qualifier hopes to break new ground on her third attempt after losses in two previous quarter-finals in Flushing.

Whatever she achieves on Wednesday, Zheng's ongoing run will go down as remarkable, given that she has come through qualifying and has needed to fight back from the brink against Madison Keys in the third round and from a disappointing start in the fourth round against Iga Swiatek on Monday.

Trailing 5-0 in the third set against Keys, Zheng fought back to claim the decider before overturning a similar 5-0 first-set disadvantage against Swiatek to claim an impressive 7-5, 6-3 triumph over the former US Open champion.

Having already needed three sets in the opening two rounds before her wins over former Grand Slam winners, the battle-hardened Chinese star seeks another strong showing to eliminate the No. 1-chasing Kazakh player.

While Rybakina has been around for nearly a decade, a last-eight match in New York is all new to her.

Indeed, the world No. 2 had never made it this far in seven previous appearances at Flushing Meadows, but 2026 has been different, with the 27-year-old winning all four matches in straight sets to reach the last eight in Queens for the first time.

Out-hitting a two-time US Open champion in Naomi Osaka leaves her on the brink of ending Sabalenka's 99-week reign as the top-ranked player on the WTA Tour.

Having entered the final Slam of the year with injury uncertainty following her Achilles issue in Cincinnati, the second seed has not appeared troubled thus far and will look to keep things that way ahead of a blockbuster meeting with Zheng.

By advancing to Wednesday's match, Rybakina has now reached the quarter-finals of all four Majors; now, she will look to reach the last four in New York to become the highest-ranked woman on the tour for the first time in her career.

Tournament so far

Qinwen Zheng:

First round: vs. Kristina Liutova 4-6 6-3 6-1

Second round: vs. Yulia Putintseva 6-4 2-6 6-1

Third round: vs. Madison Keys 1-6 7-6[3] 7-5

Fourth round: vs. Iga Swiatek 7-5 6-3

Elena Rybakina:

First round: vs. Thea Frodin 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Jessica Bouzas Maneiro 6-2 6-4

Third round: vs. Yuliia Starodubtseva 7-6[6] 6-3

Fourth round: vs. Naomi Osaka 6-1 6-4

Qinwen Zheng vs. Elena Rybakina head-to-head

Madrid Open (2026) - Round of 32: Rybakina 4-6 6-4 6-3

Qatar Open (2026) - Round of 16: Rybakina 4-6 6-2 7-5

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Zheng 7-6 3-6 6-1

China Open (2023) - Round of 64: Rybakina 6-1 6-2

Wimbledon (2022) - Third round: Rybakina 7-6(4) 7-5

Rybakina leads Zheng 4-1 in their head-to-head, but three of their five meetings have gone the distance.

Those three extended tussles have notably come in their most recent meetings, two of which have gone the second seed's way in 2026, with Zheng failing to hold on to claim the opening sets in Qatar and Madrid.

Given that Zheng's level has improved since then, she will back herself to get the better of the world No. 2 in their second Slam meeting, having lost in two tight sets in their Wimbledon third-round matchup in 2022, en route to Rybakina claiming her first Grand Slam title.

We say: Rybakina to win in three sets

After having the No. 1 ranking in her sights at Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Cincinnati, Rybakina now stands on the brink of finally replacing Sabalenka as No. 1.

Despite Zheng's tendency to run her close, we are backing the Kazakh star to secure another three-set win over the Chinese qualifier, break new ground in her career and reach the semi-finals in New York for the first time.