Preview: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova - US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka can book a place in the US Open semi-finals for a sixth consecutive occasion if she can get past Linda Noskova on Tuesday.

Over the weekend, the top seed on the women’s draw defeated Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-3, while Noskova reached the quarter-finals thanks to a 7-5 5-7 6-4 win over Marta Kostyuk.

Match preview

Despite some early struggles in her last 16 encounter on Sunday morning, Sabalenka persevered, advancing to her third Grand Slam singles quarter-final this year.

Townsend broke the reigning two-time US Open champion in three of her first four service games but Sabalenka converted seven break points to claim victory.

The four-time Grand Slam winner has never lost a quarter-final encounter on the singles draw of a major tournament on the hard court, winning in those nine previous instances.

At the same time, she has never lost a set in the quarter-finals of a US Open singles outing, advancing in a walkover at this stage of the 2025 tournament.

While she has won fewer than 70% of her first serves in two of her four US Open matches this year, the Belarusian has also registered two double faults or fewer in each of her last three matches.

Since her three-set defeat in the 2023 US Open semi-finals versus Coco Gauff, Sabalenka has not lost a singles match in this tournament after winning the opening set.

In her toughest match of the tournament so far, Linda Noskova came through in the clutch, converting six of her nine break point opportunities in round four.

Tuesday will mark her first appearance in a US Open quarter-final, as the sixth-seeded player can advance to a Grand Slam semi-final on the hard court for the first time.

The reigning Wimbledon champion has not lost a major tournament singles match all year in which she won the opening set but has been pushed to a decisive third set in those last two instances.

She has won over 60% of her first serves in each of her 2026 US Open singles outings while boasting that number or better in all but one of those matches.

Noskova has at times been prone to some unforced errors, committing a combined 26 double faults on the singles US Open draw this year.

If she can win this match, she would become the second Czech woman to get to the semi-finals of Flushing Meadows in the last three years after Karolina Muchova reached that phase in 2024.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Camila Osorio 6-2 6-4

Second round: vs. Polina Iatcenko 6-1 6-1

Third round: vs. Kamilla Rakhimova 6-3 6-4

Round of 16: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-3

Linda Noskova:

First round: vs. Katie Volynets 7-5 6-1

Second round: vs. Lanlana Tararudee 6-4 6-2

Third round: vs. Ann Li 6-2 6-7 (6-8) 6-2

Round of 16: vs. Marta Kostyuk 7-5 5-7 6-4

Head To Head

Adelaide International (2023) - Final: Sabalenka wins 6-3 7-6

Indian Wells Open (2026) - Semi-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-4

The first time these two met was in Australia three years ago, when Sabalenka took a second-set tiebreak to win the tournament.

When they met again at this year’s Indian Wells Open, Sabalenka won thanks to her eight aces while also capturing 73% of her first serves and Noskova only winning 52% of hers.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Noskova might make things a little tougher on Sabalenka, but ultimately the Belarusian is far less prone to errors, and we believe she’ll find a way to get through, as she often seems to do.