Preview: Jessica Pegula vs. Emma Navarro - US Open prediction, form, head-to-head

Seeking a third straight semi-final appearance at the US Open, Jessica Pegula will square off with fellow American Emma Navarro on Tuesday.

Both ladies won in straight sets over the weekend, with Pegula ousting Sorana Cirstea 6-3 6-4 and Navarro getting past Anna Kalinskaya 6-4 6-2.

Match preview

Despite an awkward opening set in round four in which the players only held serve three times in nine games, Jessica Pegula was on the right side more often than not.

The American captured the first 13 points of that match before Cirstea broke her, though Pegula bounced back with five aces overall, while allowing only one.

At Flushing Meadows this year, she has converted a combined 18 break-point opportunities, enabling her to reach this phase of the tournament.

In her last three matches, she has allowed a mere four aces overall, including only one to Cirstea the last time out.

Tuesday will mark her fourth appearance in a US Open quarter-final in the last five years, with the 32-year-old advancing on three of those last four occasions.

Pegula has won her last three quarter-final singles Grand Slam outings on the hard court without losing a single set along the way.

Emma Navarro’s overall game ultimately proved to be too much for Anna Kalinskaya the last time out as the American was proficient on her serve, groundstrokes and movement around the court.

She has converted a combined 18 break points at this year’s tournament, while winning at least 70% of her first serves in three of her four matches.

Navarro registered six aces in the last 16 and has a total of 24 at the tournament so far, including 10 in her opening match.

After conceding 15 aces in round one, she has been much better in the return game, allowing a combined six in her last three outings.

With a win on Tuesday, she would equal her best-ever performance at this tournament from 2024 when she defeated Paula Badosa to get to the final four.

The 25-year-old, born in New York, has lost two of her three Grand Slam singles matches at the quarter-final stage, failing to win a single set in those two defeats.

Tournament so far

Jessica Pegula:

First round: vs. Elena-Gabriele Ruse 6-3 6-2

Second round: vs. Sofia Kenin 6-3 6-1

Third round: vs. Leylah Fernandez 1-6 6-4 6-3

Round of 16: vs. Sorana Cirstea 6-3 6-4

Emma Navarro:

First round: vs. Lois Boisson 7-6 (8-6) 6-7 (1-7) 6-3

Second round: vs. Caty McNally 3-6 6-2 6-3

Third round: vs. Karolina Muchova 6-3 7-5

Round of 16: vs. Anna Kalinskaya 6-4 6-2

Head To Head

Miami Open (2024) - Round of 16: Pegula wins 7-6 6-3

Bad Homburg Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Pegula wins 6-1 1-6 6-3

China Open (2025) - Quarter-finals: Pegula wins 6-7 6-2 6-2

Cincinnati Open (2026) - Round of 32: Pegula wins 7-5 6-2

In their first meeting in Miami, Pegula prevailed, converting three break points and winning the only tiebreak of that match.

A year later, Pegula won again, thanks to her six aces while she did not concede one herself, and advanced in straight sets.

Later that year, she did it the hard way, coming from a set down in China and winning 71% of her first serves, while Navarro captured only 62% of hers.

The final meeting between these two in Cincy this year saw Navarro hit twice as many aces as Pegula (8-4), though the latter went on to win, thanks to her five break points converted to Navarro’s two.

We say: Pegula to win in three sets

This should be a close match, though we give the edge to Pegula, whose overall game seems to be a little stronger, and whose recent experience in the latter stages of this tournament may also give her an advantage.