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Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Gael Monfils - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Shanghai Masters fourth-round match between Carlos Alcaraz and Gael Monfils, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Carlos Alcaraz has not dropped a set at the ongoing Shanghai Masters, and the in-form Spaniard is seeking another triumph against veteran Gael Monfils in Wednesday's fourth-round battle.

The world No. 2 was made to work for his round-three triumph against Wu Yibing to set up a rematch with the man who got the better of him in Cincinnati two months back.


Match preview

Carlos Alcaraz reacts at the China Open on October 2, 2024© Imago

Although Alcaraz has clinched four consecutive sets across rounds two and three heading into Wednesday's battle with Monfils, the sensation admitted to struggling against his recent Chinese opponent.

The Spaniard secured a 7-6(5), 6-3 victory against the champion of last year's ATP 250 event in Dallas, even if he needed to turn around a 3-1 deficit in the first-set tie-break to avoid requiring a comeback in the third-round match.

Entering his fourth ATP Tour meeting with Monfils on an 11-match winning sequence, the 21-year-old has undoubtedly put post-Olympic Games struggles behind him.

The four-time Grand Slam champion suffered shock exits to his next opponent in Cincinnati before losing uncharacteristically early at the final Major of the year in New York, even if he has recovered from those setbacks to clinch the title in Beijing at the expense of Jannik Sinner.

That was his fourth of 2024, and he aims to keep his momentum going against his French opponent, looking to advance in Shanghai and ultimately secure his fifth title of this season and second at an ATP 1000 tournament.

Gael Monfils reacts at the China Open on September 27, 2024© Imago

Monfils packs a punch despite his advanced years and heads into a fourth match with Alcaraz on the back of three consecutive victories over Damir Dzumhur, Sebastian Baez and Ugo Humbert.

The veteran needed three sets to oust his previous two opponents at the ongoing tournament and will accept going the distance again if it means securing consecutive triumphs against an opponent 17 years his junior.

By shocking countryman Humbert in the previous round, the unseeded world No. 44 becomes the second-oldest player to be involved at this stage in Shanghai history — behind Roger Federer (also 38) at 2019's event — and aims for another unexpected victory to take on Tommy Paul or Tomas Machac in the quarter-final.

Having already notched wins over two seeded opponents in Baez and Humbert, the 38-year-old seeks an even bigger scalp of the No. 2 seed to advance to the last eight in Shanghai for the first time since 2013.


Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: Bye
Second round: vs. Juncheng Shang 6-2 6-2
Third round: vs. Wu Yibing 7-6[5] 6-3

Gael Monfils:

First round: vs. Damir Dzumhur 6-4 6-3
Second round: vs. Sebastian Baez 6-3 4-6 6-4
Third round: vs. Ugo Humbert 7-6[7] 2-6 6-1


Head To Head

Cincinnati Masters (2024) - Round of 32: Monfils 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4

Miami Masters (2024) - Round of 32: Alcaraz 6-2 6-4

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 16: Alcaraz 7-5 6-1

Alcaraz had notched victories against Monfils without dropping a set until the Frenchman secured a comeback win in Cincy before the US Open.

Although the Spaniard still leads their head-to-head 2-1, his recent loss to the 38-year-old could throw some doubt into his mind ahead of their fourth match-up on Tour.

With previous encounters at ATP 1000 events, Wednesday's encounter will be their fourth Masters battle.


SM words green background

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Losing to Monfils in Cincinnati despite claiming the opening set was anomalous for Alcaraz, whose dip subsequently continued at the US Open when he exited early at the hands of Botic van de Zandschulp.

However, the resurgent 16-time Tour-level champion has not only played tennis resembling his best recently, but he has also coped better with challenges on the court during his 11-match winning run.

Normal service should resume against Monfils for Alcaraz, who is favoured to extend his advantage in the pair's head-to-head to 3-1.

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