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Preview: Katie Boulter vs. Coco Gauff - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Sunday's China Open third-round match between Katie Boulter and Coco Gauff, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

With a place in the last 16 of the China Open at stake, Katie Boulter and Coco Gauff square off in Sunday's intriguing third-round battle.

Both seeds marched to straight-sets wins in their Beijing openers, as Boulter triumphed over Gauff's compatriot Taylor Townsend, while the American sent France's Clara Burel packing.


Match preview

Katie Boulter pictured on August 9, 2024© Imago

Playing her first WTA singles match since crashing out of the US Open in the second round, Boulter needed a little over 90 minutes to earn her first victory in nearly a month against the unfancied Townsend, whom she bested 6-4 6-4 in the second round.

While her American foe had to navigate a first-round three-setter with Martina Trevisan, Boulter earned a bye into the second round thanks to her status as the 26th seed and made her extra period of preparation count, even if she got off to the worst possible start.

Indeed, the British number one was broken straight off the bat as Townsend raced into a 3-0 lead, but Boulter maintained her composure and had an exceptional serving display to thank for a stellar turnaround, not missing a single first serve throughout the one-hour and 33-minute contest.

Boulter was guilty of being slightly wasteful on break points, squandering 75% of the opportunities that came her way (nine of 12), but the 28-year-old's powers of recovery were on full display as she eventually neutralised the Townsend forehand.

After being dumped out of the US Open by Jessica Bouzas Maneiro - a defeat that she labelled "horrendous" to her courtside team - Boulter doubted her own winning mentality, but the manner of Friday's fightback should act as a major fillip before Sunday's heavyweight showdown.

Coco Gauff reacts at the US Open on August 29, 2024© Imago

Boulter's upcoming opponent Gauff also departed New York ruing what could have been - having seen her title defence surprisingly ended by Emma Navarro in the fourth round - and her battle with Burel also represented her comeback appearance after her premature Flushing Meadows departure.

Similarly to Boulter, the world number six had to do it the hard way against Burel in round two having lost serve straight away, but she emerged triumphant from a topsy-turvy first set and took the second by the scruff of the neck to prevail 7-5 6-3 in one hour and 40 minutes.

World number 56 Burel broke Gauff three times in the opener and had the chance to serve for the set at 5-4, but the never-say-die Gauff crucially broke back at the start of a four-game winning sequence before converting her first match point after a less chaotic second.

Still committed to making serious improvements on serve, Gauff double-faulted on six occasions against Burel but hailed her aggressiveness on the returning side, having fashioned 17 break points over the course of the contest.

Four-time major winner Naomi Osaka could be awaiting the winner of this seeded battle in the fourth round - if she can make it past Katie Volynets - but nothing can separate Boulter and Gauff in the head-to-head column ahead of their third top-level meeting.


Tournament so far

Katie Boulter:

First round: vs. Taylor Townsend 6-4 6-4

Coco Gauff:

First round: vs. Clara Burel 7-5 6-3


Head To Head

National Bank Open (2023) - Second Round: Gauff wins 6-2 6-2
Melbourne 500 Gippsland Trophy (2021) - Stage: Boulter wins 3-6 7-5 6-2

As mentioned, neither Boulter nor Gauff boast the bragging rights over the other on the WTA Tour, as they have each claimed one victory apiece from their previous contests.

A teenage Gauff first squared up to Boulter in the Gippsland Trophy in 2021, where the Briton - who entered via a protected ranking - recovered from losing the first set to eliminate her youthful foe.

However, Gauff earned a slice of revenge in Montreal two years later, dropping just four games in a second-round domination of the British number one.


SM words green background

We say: Gauff to win in two sets

Boulter can certainly expect to win some cheap points on Gauff double faults this weekend, and the 26th seed served impeccably throughout her win over Townsend, even if she did get off to a false start like Gauff.

However, the former US Open champion made extremely light work of Boulter on the Montreal hard courts last year and should use her front-footed approach to devastating effect to book her place in round four.

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