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Preview: Madrid Open: Emma Raducanu vs. Marta Kostyuk - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Sports Mole previews Friday's Madrid Open second-round match between Emma Raducanu and Marta Kostyuk, including predictions, head-to-head and their tournament so far.

Up and running at the Madrid Open, Emma Raducanu puts her clay-court mettle to the test against Ukraine's Marta Kostyuk in Friday's second-round encounter.

While the 24th seed earned a bye into the second round, Raducanu had to overcome a stiff test posed by the Netherlands' Suzan Lamens to progress to the second stage.


Match preview

Emma Raducanu in action during the Madrid Open on April 23, 2025© Imago

Fresh from a three-week hiatus after her magical jaunt in Miami, where she became a WTA 1000 quarter-finalist for the first time in her career, Raducanu commenced her quest to go at least one better in Madrid as she passed a tricky Lamens-sized examination in round one.

Triumphing 7-6[4] 6-4 in just under two hours, Raducanu struggled for first-serve supremacy as she won just 53% of points behind her opening hits, but she fought back from a break down in both sets and saved five of the eight break points that Lamens managed to fashion.

Also showcasing her elite tie-breaker mentality, Raducanu has now won six of her seven such deciders in the 2025 season so far as she thrives under the wing of "informal" coach Mark Petchey, who guided her to a first outdoor clay-court win in almost three years.

Having come through that big-hitting battle, the former US Open champion is just one success away from matching her best run at the Madrid Open to date, progressing to round three on her tournament debut in 2022 before being taken down by Anhelina Kalinina.

Now, another Ukrainian powerhouse stands in her way of a spot in the third round, one whom she has already crossed paths with on the clay courts of Madrid.

Marta Kostyuk ictured on January 17 , 2025© Imago

Also boasting one WTA 1000 quarter-final on her record from the 2025 season - making the last eight at the Qatar Open - 24th seed Kostyuk commences her latest quest for a maiden honour at this level on one of her least favourite haunts.

Indeed, the 22-year-old has never managed to progress past the second round at the Madrid Open - falling at this exact point in each of the past three seasons - so she would break new ground by winning just the one match at the current edition.

Following respectable fourth-round finishes at the Indian Wells Masters and Miami Open - losing to Qinwen Zheng and Jessica Pegula respectively - Kostyuk dressed up in Ukraine colours for the Billie Jean King Cup qualifiers, suffering defeat to Switzerland's Celine Naef but breezing past Poland's Katarzyna Kawa.

Kostyuk's efforts helped Ukraine punch their ticket to this year's Finals - where Raducanu and Great Britain could await - but thoughts of national glory take a backseat for a few months while the 22-year-old endeavours to improve on a respectable 11-9 record for the year.

The victor of this showdown can look forward to an equally engrossing battle with Paula Badosa or Veronika Kudermetova in the third round, and if the stars align for either Raducanu or Kostyuk, top seed Aryna Sabalenka could await in a gargantuan quarter-final.


Tournament so far

Emma Raducanu:

First round: vs. Suzan Lamens 7-6[4] 6-4

Marta Kostyuk:

First round: Bye


Head To Head

Madrid Open (2022) - Third Round: Raducanu wins 6-2 6-1
Transylvania Open (2021) - Quarter-Finals: Kostyuk wins 6-2 6-1

As alluded to, Raducanu and Kostyuk have already butted heads once before on the Madrid Open courts, but it was not much of a contest as the former British number one surged to a 6-2 6-1 victory.

The Ukrainian earned a paltry six points on the Raducanu serve that day, as the former US Open champion avenged an identical beating from when the pair first met at the 2021 Transylvania Open.

The Cluj tournament was just Raducanu's second competition after her Flushing Meadows success, and she was her own worst enemy with a staggering 38 unforced errors on the day.


SM words green background

We say: Raducanu to win in three sets

Expect big hitting followed by even more big hitting between two aggressive, forward-thinking players, albeit ones who have been plagued by inconsistency and doubts in recent times.

However, with a relaxed coaching setup and change in mentality getting the best out of her, we can envisage Raducanu getting the job done, especially when her excellent tie-breaker record is also factored into the equation.

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Written by
Ben Knapton

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Emma Raducanu during the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells on March 6, 2025
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