/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F25%2F22%2Figa-swiatek.jpeg "Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far")
Fresh off comfortable starts at the WTA Finals in Riyadh, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina face off for the 11th time on the women’s tour on Monday.
Swiatek has edged the past four matches after trailing in their head-to-head, and the 2023 Finals champion seeks a fifth consecutive victory over the Kazakhstani star to improve to 2-0 at the year-end event.
Match preview
Entering the start of her bid for a second WTA Finals crown, Swiatek was favoured to beat a rusty Madison Keys on Saturday, and the 24-year-old did exactly that in a 6-1, 6-2 victory.
Dropping just three games reflected the six-time Grand Slam winner’s dominance on serve and return, especially in breaking Keys five times from eight opportunities.
The result of winning double the points of her American opponent's 29 saw Swiatek move level with Chris Evert and Caroline Wozniacki on 10 round-robin wins at the year-end event, placing the 25-time WTA champion only behind Maria Sharapova (17), Martina Navratilova (14) and Serena Williams (14).
Aiming to record another victory at this level to edge closer to Williams and Navratilova, the 2023 finals champion enters Monday's contest as the favourite, especially since she seems to have solved her Rybakina riddle this season after previous struggles against the big-serving former Slam champion.
Fresh off improving her season record to 62-15, the 2023 year-end champion seeks a 63rd win at the expense of the woman on the other side of the net.
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Rybakina, however, packs a punch and has the tools to trouble the 24-year-old if her application is right and her execution remains consistent throughout an entire match.
The 2022 Wimbledon champion demonstrated her resilience in Saturday's opener by convincingly defeating debutant Amanda Anisimova in straight sets, winning 6-3, 6-1 in less than an hour.
Rybakina was clinical in converting break point opportunities, making an impact four times on the two-time Grand Slam finalist's serves, while conceding just one break chance on her own serve.
Such high-level play exemplifies the 10-time WTA champion when everything falls into place, and the 26-year-old aims for her 12th post-US Open victory by ending her losing streak against the Pole.
No player on the women's tour has won more than Rybakina's 11 matches since the final major of 2025, highlighting her current hot streak, and the Dubai resident is striving to move one step closer to qualifying for the semi-finals at the year-end event for the first time.
Having defeated a top-10 opponent for the seventh time in Saturday's tournament opener, the 26-year-old now seeks her eighth victory to surpass her 2023 record of wins against elite opponents on the WTA Tour.
Tournament so far
Iga Swiatek:
Round Robin: vs. Madison Keys 6-1 6-2
Elena Rybakina:
Round Robin: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-1
Head To Head
Cincinnati (2025) - Semi-final: Swiatek 7-5 6-3
French Open (2025) - Fourth round: Swiatek 1-6 6-3 7-5
Doha (2025) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 6-2 7-5
United Cup (2025) - Semi-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-4
Stuttgart (2024) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-4 4-6 6-3
Doha (2024) - Final: Swiatek 7-6(8) 6-2
Rome (2023) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 ret
Indian Wells (2023) - Semi-final: Rybakina 6-2 6-2
Australian Open (2023) - Fourth round: Rybakina 6-4 6-4
Ostrava (2021) - Quarter-final: Swiatek 7-6(5) 6-2
Swiatek entered 2025 trailing Rybakina 4-2 in their head-to-head, but the Polish star has been dominant this year, sealing four victories in a row.
Three of those four wins have been in straight sets, although the one time the Kazakhstani player nicked one set came at the French Open.
Rybakina dominated an out-of-sorts Swiatek for much of that encounter, only for her level to drop as the clay specialist’s rose in the eventual three-set defeat.
The 24-year-old has notably won five of their seven meetings on hard courts, with all seven on the surface ending in straight sets.
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We say: Swiatek to win in two sets
Rybakina and Swiatek have notably engaged in some lengthy battles on hard courts in Doha last year and in this season's United Cup semi-final, although both matches concluded in two sets.
Another tight contest may be on the horizon on Monday, although the 2023 champion is favoured to narrowly defeat the former Wimbledon champion, thereby almost securing her semi-final place.
Caroline Wozniacki
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