Preview:WTA Finals: Elena Rybakina vs. Madison Keys - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off progressing from the Serena Williams Group, Elena Rybakina faces Madison Keys on Wednesday, aiming to remain unbeaten in the WTA Finals round robin.

With the Australian Open champion already eliminated after consecutive defeats to Iga Swiatek and Amanda Anisimova, the final match of the Serena Group is effectively a dead rubber.

Match preview

Rybakina may have been the final woman to qualify for the Finals in Riyadh, but the Kazakhstani player, on Monday, became the first to reach the last four.

A fifth consecutive defeat to Iga Swiatek seemed inevitable after losing the first set, only to rally in sets two and three, dropping just one game from the next 13 to win 3-6, 6-1, 6-0 after one hour and 37 minutes.

The result of that victory means that the world No. 6 becomes the first player from Kazakhstan to reach the semi-finals of the year-end event, becoming third-time lucky after previous round robin disappointments.

Rybakina now maintains an eight-match winning streak since her loss to Aryna Sabalenka in Wuhan, with that defeat being her only blemish since her exit to Eva Lys in Beijing in September.

Beating No. 2 seed Swiatek was the one-time Grand Slam champion’s 11th win against a player ranked in the top 10, second only to Venus Williams’s 28 among current players for the most wins over top-two players.

Now, the 27-year-old aims to deliver another defeat to Keys, whose return to competitive action has not gone as planned in Riyadh.

Although the 30-year-old nicked the opening set against Anisimova on Monday, the two-time Grand Slam finalist clinched the all-American clash by overturning that deficit to eliminate the Aussie Open champion.

With early exits at the year-end tournament now characterising both appearances at the Finals, Keys at least strives to secure a victory against Rybakina to avoid going 0-3 in Riyadh.

Considering the American’s losing streak — she has been beaten by Rybakina, Renata Zarazua, Swiatek and Anisimova in Cincinnati, New York and twice in Riyadh respectively — the former world No. 5 seeks to end her ongoing four-match losing streak.

The latest defeat marked her 15th loss of 2025, but the No. 7 seed hopes to halt this losing run and improve her overall record to 37-15 for the season.

With her 68-day absence from competitive action contributing to a pair of defeats for the rusty American, it would be hard to see anything except another loss if Rybakina does not ease off in Wednesday’s contest.

Tournament so far

Elena Rybakina:

Round robin: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-1

Round robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 3-6 6-1 6-0

Madison Keys:

Round robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 1-6 2-6

Round robin: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-4 3-6 2-6

Head To Head

Cincinnati (2025) - Round of 16: Rybakina 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2

Australian Open (2025) - Fourth round: Keys 6-3 1-6 6-3

Miami (2024) - Round of 16: Rybakina 6-3 7-5

Ostrava (2022) - Round of 32: Rybakina 5-7 6-3 6-3

Cincinnati (2022) - Quarter-final: Keys 6-2 6-4

French Open (2022) - Round of 32: Keys 3-6 6-1 7-6(3)

Having won their first two matchups, Keys then suffered consecutive losses to Rybakina before defeating the Kazakhstani star en route to winning her maiden Slam Down Under in January.

The 2022 Wimbledon champion has since avenged that loss in Cincinnati, beating Keys in three sets to start the American’s first of four consecutive defeats.

With five of their six meetings taking place on hard courts, there should be no surprise for either player ahead of their seventh meeting on the tour.

Tied at 3-3, the winner on Wednesday will take a 4-3 lead in their head-to-head.

We say: Rybakina to win in two sets

Unless Rybakina eases off, as she has nothing to lose but her winning streak, it is unlikely to see Keys defeating the form player on the women’s tour.

Given the American player’s rusty performance, we expect the Kazakhstani star to secure a ninth consecutive win and end the round robin 3-0.