Preview: WTA Finals: Coco Gauff vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, form, head-to-head

Weeks after their Wuhan showdown, Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula face off in Sunday's all-American clash at the WTA Finals in Riyadh.

The defending champion returns to the year-end event in good form after claiming the title at the WTA 1000 tournament, and the two-time Grand Slam winner aims to get off to a positive start in the round-robin contest.

Match preview

Twelve months after defeating in-form opponents Aryna Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng in the semi-finals and final, respectively, Gauff returns to Riyadh aiming to start her defence strongly.

Last year’s title match against Zheng was a three-hour epic that the American No. 1 won after coming from a set down to triumph 3-6, 6-4, 7-6(2).

A topsy-turvy year began with the 21-year-old winning her first nine matches of 2025, only for a dip following the Australian Open to see the American No. 1 lose early in Doha, Dubai, Indian Wells and Miami.

However, a resurgence during the clay season was undeniable, and Gauff reached the quarter-finals in Stuttgart and the final in Madrid and Rome, losing to Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini, respectively.

Nevertheless, Gauff's persistence and consistency on the dirt paid off eventually, as she overcame Sabalenka in an error-strewn Roland Garros final.

The grass season was a washout, and the US Open failed to meet lofty expectations; however, the two-time Grand Slam champion has found a third wind, reaching the semi-finals in Beijing and claiming the title in Wuhan.

Pegula was the opponent in that WTA 1000 final, with the 31-year-old unable to fully capitalise on her victory over Sabalenka in the semi-final, thereby ending the Belarusian’s 20-match winning streak and her bid for a fourth consecutive crown.

The 2024 US Open runner-up was aiming for her fourth title of 2025, having already won in Austin, Charleston and Bad Homburg.

Having 51 wins in 2025 is a notable achievement, and the American No. 3 and world No. 5 is aiming for her 52nd to improve her current 51-21 record for the season.

Pegula's journey to the 2023 final could not be repeated 12 months ago, as she withdrew before her final group match, but she is aiming for a more favourable return to Riyadh.

Indeed, defeating Gauff for the fifth time would put her in a strong position for another deep run at the year-end tournament.

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2025) - Final: Gauff 6-4 7-5

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Gauff 6-3 6-2

German Open (2024) - Semi-finals: Pegula 7-5 7-6[2]

WTA Finals (2023) - Semi-finals: Pegula 6-2 6-1

Montreal Open (2023) - Quarter-finals: Pegula 6-2 5-7 7-5

Eastbourne International (2023) - Quarter-finals: Gauff 6-3 6-3

Dubai Tennis Championships (2022) - Round of 32: Pegula 6-4 6-4

Pegula leads Gauff 4-3 in their head-to-head record, but that does not tell the whole story.

Although both players split their first two meetings on the tour, Pegula then won three consecutive matches to open a 4-1 lead over the younger American player.

However, Gauff has since recorded back-to-back victories over the 31-year-old, most recently defeating the former world No. 3 in the Wuhan title match.

Six of their previous encounters have been settled in straight sets, except for their quarter-final in Montreal two years ago, which Pegula won in three.

We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Although much will depend on a quick start, it remains to be seen if Gauff adapts to the indoor conditions as well as her opponent.

The all-American clash is likely to be a back-and-forth battle, and we expect the two-time Slam winner to beat Pegula in three.