Preview:WTA Finals: Coco Gauff vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off tournament-opening losses in Riyadh, Coco Gauff and Jasmine Paolini face each other in Tuesday’s WTA Finals match, trying to recover after defeats in the Steffi Graf Group.

Jessica Pegula beat Gauff in the rematch of the Wuhan Open final, while Paolini’s struggles against Aryna Sabalenka continued as the Italian managed just four games in the loss to the top seed.

Match preview

Only Gauff could double-fault an astonishing 17 times and still keep a match competitive, highlighted by taking Pegula to a decider in Sunday's round-robin match in Riyadh.

Broken nine times in the two-hour, 12-minute contest, Pegula won the all-American match 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2, putting the 2025 French Open winner and defending Finals champion on the verge of elimination if she loses to Paolini on Tuesday.

That outcome will be disappointing for Gauff, considering she entered the year-end tournament having won nine of her last 10 matches - a statistic all the more encouraging, as seven of those wins were in straight sets.

Having not faced double figures in break point chances since a titanic tussle with Leylah Fernandez in Beijing, where the Canadian created 10 opportunities on the American's serve, breaking three times, no opponent had yet managed to push Gauff on her serve quite like Pegula.

Not only did the 2024 US Open runner-up create 18 break chances against Gauff, but she converted nine of them, stressing how poorly the latter performed on court.

Aiming to avoid a repeat, the former world No. 2 must show something different to prevent an early exit in Riyadh, 12 months after an impressive run to the year-end title.

Paolini, like Gauff, risks exiting the Finals if she fails to secure a fourth career victory over the two-time Grand Slam champion.

Sunday’s result against Sabalenka was expected, considering the precedent and the Belarusian’s undeniable superiority, but it marked a step backwards after she pushed the world No. 1 to two tight sets in their semi-final in Stuttgart in April.

However, taking only four games in the 3-6, 1-6 defeat was psychologically damaging, and it remains to be seen how the 29-year-old will respond.

Having already defeated Gauff three times in 2025 — twice on clay and once on hard courts — the world No. 8 is aiming for a fourth victory over the American star to improve her 46-19 record for the season.

However, the Italian No. 1 player, also competing in doubles with Sara Errani, has suffered three consecutive defeats against top-10 players, including one against Tuesday's opponent, and will be looking to break that streak in the upcoming decisive match.

Tournament so far

Coco Gauff:

Round-robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 3-6 7-6[4] 2-6

Jasmine Paolini:

Round-robin: vs. Aryna Sabalenka 3-6 1-6

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2025) - Semi-final: Gauff 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati (2025) - Quarter-final: Paolini 2-6 6-4 6-3

Rome (2025) - Final: Paolini 6-4 6-2

Stuttgart (2025) - Quarter-final: Paolini 6-4 6-3

Cincinnati (2023) - Quarter-final: Gauff 6-2 6-2

Adelaide (2021) - Round of 32: Gauff 6-4 6-7(4) 6-2

Gauff and Paolini are tied at 3-3 heading into their seventh meeting on the WTA Tour, with Tuesday's victor taking a 4-3 lead in their head-to-head.

Having trailed 2-0 after their initial encounters, three wins for the Italian in 2025 put her ahead of the two-time Grand Slam champion, including victories en route to the WTA 1000 crown on her home turf in Rome, as well as wins in Stuttgart and Cincinnati.

However, Gauff defeated Italy's No. 1 woman on her way to claiming the Wuhan title last month, before the start of the year-end tournament.

Tuesday’s match will be their fifth on a hard court, with the American star leading 3-1, though both encounters in 2025 have been split.

We say: Gauff to win in three sets

Gauff knows how to fight hard and win ugly, and that stands her in good stead ahead of a crucial match to stay alive in Riyadh.

While Paolini is likely to win a set on Tuesday, the American No. 1 should outlast the two-time Grand Slam finalist before a decisive final match against Aryna Sabalenka.