Preview:WTA Finals: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Three weeks after seemingly solving her Aryna Sabalenka riddle, Jessica Pegula faces the world No. 1 at the WTA Finals, aiming for back-to-back wins over the tour's top player for the first time.

The American star was a set behind and 2-5 down in the decider in the Wuhan Open semi-final, only to secure victory, ending the Belarusian’s 20-match winning streak at the event, and Sabalenka seeks to respond in Riyadh.

Match preview

Sabalenka was nearly unstoppable in Wuhan, winning three consecutive titles and aiming for a fourth, until Pegula interrupted her streak.

The result of that loss was the world No. 1 failing to defend her title in 2025, meaning she heads to the Finals in Riyadh having secured just four titles in a year that has produced 60 wins.

Only the 27-year-old and Iga Swiatek (62) have won over 60 matches on the women's tour in 2025, highlighting the top seed's consistent performances throughout the season as she approaches the climax.

Given previous wins over Pegula, Sabalenka enters Tuesday's match as the favourite; however, some caution is advised: after dominating their three prior encounters before the US Open semi-final, the 21-time WTA champion needed a decider at Flushing Meadows before her collapse in Wuhan.

Looking to move past that setback, Sabalenka began her quest for a first WTA Finals title with a convincing 6-3, 6-1 victory over Jasmine Paolini, and the Belarusian could secure her semi-final spot by achieving her ninth tour-level win over the American player.

Pegula, fresh off winning ugly against Coco Gauff in her tournament opener, now aims to stun the world No. 1 for the second time in the space of three weeks to all but seal her place in the tournament’s last four.

Following an early 12 months ago, losing her first two matches before withdrawing injured prior to facing Swiatek in the dead rubber of match three, the 2023 Finals runner-up has started this year’s event well, positioning her strongly ahead of a potential semi-final appearance.

Winning the all-American clash on Sunday brought the former world No. 3 to 52 wins this season, and she seeks a 53rd victory to improve her 52-21 record in 2025.

While Gauff’s serve helped Pegula’s 6-3, 6-7(4), 6-2 victory after two hours and 12 minutes, the No. 5-ranked player will need to put in more effort to create chances on Sabalenka's serve, having broken her compatriot nine times from 18 break points.

Having already defeated Gauff, Swiatek and Sabalenka in 2025, the 31-year-old has showcased her ability in big matches, and this confidence should bolster the nine-time WTA champion ahead of her 12th tour-level confrontation with the Belarusian.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1

Jessica Pegula:

Round Robin: vs. Coco Gauff 6-3 6-7[4] 6-2

Head To Head

Wuhan Open (2025) - Semi-final: Pegula 2-6 6-4 7-6(2)

US Open (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-4

Miami Open (2025) - Final: Sabalenka 7-5 6-2

US Open (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 7-5 7-5

Cincinnati (2024) - Final: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Pegula 6-4 6-3

WTA Finals (2022) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Rome (2022) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-4

Madrid (2021) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-1 6-2

French Open (2020) - First round: Sabalenka 6-3 6-1

Cincinnati (2020) - Round of 16: Pegula 6-2 2-6 6-3

One match may not be conclusive, but Pegula's comeback from 2-5 down to end Sabalenka’s 20-match winning streak in Wuhan last month certainly boosts the American’s confidence against the No. 1 player.

That victory ended a two-year, four-match losing run against the Belarusian, and the 31-year-old aims for consecutive wins over the top seed for the first time.

Nonetheless, Sabalenka still leads this rivalry 8-3, highlighting her dominance ahead of their 12th encounter on the women’s tour.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Having taken a set off Sabalenka for the first time in two years at the US Open, Pegula then exceeded expectations in Wuhan by defeating the top seed.

Nonetheless, the Belarusian is likely to be businesslike and raise her level to beat her conqueror in Wuhan to confirm her semi-final berth in Riyadh.