Preview: WTA Finals: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini - prediction, form, head-to-head

Aryna Sabalenka’s bid for her first WTA Finals title begins against Jasmine Paolini on Sunday, as she aims for another victory over the Italian No. 1.

The Belarusian has beaten Paolini in four of their previous encounters, including at the year-end tournament 12 months ago, and is the clear favourite entering their eighth meeting on the women’s tour.

Match preview

Sabalenka has been the No. 1 player for an entire year, and she will finish the season at the top of the women's rankings.

However, the WTA Finals title continues to elude her, having been runner-up to Caroline Garcia in 2022 and eliminated in the semi-finals in the past two years.

Entering her fifth year-end tournament, Sabalenka has not exited early since her debut in 2021, and she is not expected to leave Riyadh prematurely this time.

The women's leading player's preparation was bittersweet: she retained the US Open crown, defeating Amanda Anisimova in New York, but recently fell to Jessica Pegula in Wuhan, losing her hold on the WTA 1000 event after 20 consecutive wins and three straight titles.

The 27-year-old enters Sunday with a 59-11 record for the season, but is the favourite to secure her 60th win at Paolini's expense.

The story of the Italian No. 1 over the past 24 months remains tremendously admirable, having almost emerged from nowhere to become a top-10 player and a regular participant at the leading events.

At 28, she became the second-oldest player after Li Na to debut at the year-end event in 2024, and the Italian star returns this year, aiming to go one step further.

Having defeated Elena Rybakina in her first-ever Finals match, Paolini's two losses to Sabalenka and Qinwen Zheng meant she could not reach the semi-finals in Riyadh.

Twelve months later, the 29-year-old aims to avoid last year's outcome and ultimately progress from the Steffi Graf Group.

A commendable Asian swing saw the former world No. 4 reach the quarter-finals in Beijing and the semi-finals in Wuhan and Ningbo, improving her season record to 46-18.

A 47th victory seems unlikely, given Sabalenka's dominance, but it remains to be seen if Paolini displays something different against the leading player on the women's tour this time.

Head To Head

Stuttgart (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 7-5 6-4

Miami (2025) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 6-2 6-2

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-3 7-5

Beijing (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka 6-4 7-6(4)

Indian Wells (2022) - Round of 64: Paolini 2-6 6-3 6-3

Linz (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka 6-4 6-4

Ilkley (2017) - Round of 32: Paolini 4-6 7-5 7-6(2)

Having defeated Sabalenka in two of their first three encounters, Sabalenka has won four consecutive matches to lead Paolini 5-2 across all tours.

Even more intriguing is the Belarusian winning those matches in straight sets, including last year's round-robin match in Riyadh.

While Paolini has defeated the 27-year-old on grass and hard courts, none has occurred in the past three years, highlighting the world No. 1's rise and her status as the leading player on the women's tour.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Paolini will need to play high-quality tennis throughout to beat Sabalenka, but this matchup favours the Belarusian.

The Italian No. 1 is unlikely to out-power the WTA Tour’s leading player or defeat her with unpredictable shot-making, indicating another comfortable two-set victory.