Preview:WTA Finks: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elena Rybakina - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Unblemished in Riyadh, Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina will compete in the WTA Finals title match to close the year with a significant prize at stake.

Both entering the final at 4-0, the winner of the year-end event is guaranteed to earn $5,235,000 (£3,978,266), but whose hands will lift the coveted trophy for the first time to mark the end of what has been an awe-inspiring year for Sabalenka and a strong finish for Rybakina?

Match preview

It took two hours and 21 minutes to secure her 63rd victory of 2025, but Sabalenka was not to be denied another title match — her ninth this season — to close out the year.

By ending Amanda Anisimova's 13-match winning streak in three-set contests with the 6-3, 3-6, 6-3 victory, the world No. 1 will have another opportunity at the year-end event, having lost to Caroline Garcia in the 2022 final.

While the subsequent two appearances at the year-end tournament resulted in semi-final exits, Sabalenka has overcome previous disappointments to reach another title match, this time in Riyadh, where she aims for her fifth title of 2025 and 22nd of her career.

Only Venus Williams (three) has reached more title matches at the Finals among active players than the Belarusian, whose run to the decider in Saudi Arabia makes her the fourth player since the turn of the millennium, after Martina Hingis (2000), Justine Henin (2007) and Serena Williams (2013), to reach nine finals or more at tour-level.

Indeed, Sabalenka now seeks to avoid previous dips in title matches, aiming to defeat Rybakina in their 14th meeting on the tour and claim an elusive crown in Riyadh.

Rybakina may have been the last player to secure a spot at the year-end event, but the Kazakhstani has arguably been the standout performer in Saudi Arabia, also going 4-0 like her opponent in Saturday's final.

The 2022 Wimbledon champion's booming serve scored several cheap points in her comeback victory over Jessica Pegula in Friday's semi-final — her second of the Finals after her previous success over Iga Swiatek in the round-robin — thus surpassing 500 aces for 2025 — no other player on the WTA Tour comes close.

This powerful serve should help the in-form Kazakhstani ahead of Saturday's final against the Belarusian, as she aims to extend her 10-match winning streak.

The Ningbo champion had never advanced past the round-robin in previous appearances; however, the former Grand Slam champion has been on a tear in Riyadh, extending her run of defeating top-10 opponents to six before her upcoming showdown with the top seed.

Having matched Sabalenka's streak of beating top-tier players between Indian Wells and Madrid, Rybakina is aiming for a seventh victory to deliver another final defeat to the Belarusian and secure a seventh successive top-10 win to claim the coveted title.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

Round Robin: vs. Jasmine Paolini 6-3 6-1

Round Robin: vs. Jessica Pegula 6-4 2-6 6-3

Round Robin: vs. Coco Gauff 7-6[5] 6-2

Semi-final: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 3-6 6-3

Elena Rybakina:

Round Robin: vs. Amanda Anisimova 6-3 6-1

Round Robin: vs. Iga Swiatek 3-6 6-1 6-0

Round Robin: vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 6-4

Semi-final: vs. Jessica Pegula 4-6 6-4 3-6

Head To Head

Wuhan (2025) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 6-3 6-3

Cincinnati (2025) - Quarter-final: Rybakina 6-1 6-4

Berlin (2025) - Quarter-final: Sabalenka 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(6)

WTA Finals (2024) - Round Robin: Rybakina 6-4 3-6 6-1

Madrid (2024) - Semi-final: Sabalenka 1-6 7-5 7-6(5)

Brisbane (2024) - Final: Rybakina 6-0 6-3

WTA Finals (2023) - Round Robin: Sabalenka 6-2 3-6 6-3

Beijing (2023) - Quarter-finals: Rybakina 7-5 6-2

Indian Wells (2023) - Final: Rybakina 7-6(11) 6-4

Australian Open (2023) - Final: Sabalenka 4-6 6-3 6-4

Wimbledon (2021) - Fourth round: Sabalenka 6-3 4-6 6-3

Abu Dhabi (2021) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-4 4-6 6-3

Wuhan (2019) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka 6-3 1-6 6-1

Sabalenka leads their head-to-head 8-5, although four of the top seed's victories came in their early matches.

The Belarusian beat Rybakina in four sets in those encounters, emphasising the close nature of their contests, and the Kazakhstani has since responded by winning five of the last nine ahead of their 14th meeting.

Their upcoming showdown will be their 11th on a hard court, with both women tied at 5-5; however, Rybakina has won five of the last seven, having lost their first three encounters.

Saturday's match will be their fourth final on the tour, with the 2022 Wimbledon champion leading 2-1, after securing titles at Indian Wells in 2023 and Brisbane in 2024, following a three-set defeat at the 2023 Australian Open.

Examining Sabalenka's record in finals is essential, as she stands at 21-18 in tour-level title matches, with a 4-4 record this season, including losses in three-set matches to Madison Keys and Coco Gauff Down Under and in Paris.

While Rybakina does not have a winning record in finals — she is 10-11 in title deciders — the 26-year-old has won her last three finals, including Stuttgart previous year, Strasbourg and Ningbo in 2025, aiming to secure a fourth consecutive victory in a final.

We say: Sabalenka to win in three sets

With eight of their 13 matches going the distance, fans in the King Saud University Indoor Arena can expect another exciting Sabalenka-Rybakina duel.

You expect the ball to suffer when these two heavy hitters take to the court on Saturday, and as cliched as it sounds, this one could go either way.

Nonetheless, Sabalenka might edge this one based on her motivation to right the perceived wrong of losing three years ago and thus defeat the first-time finalist at the year-end event.