Preview: Monte-Carlo Masters: Tomas Machac vs. Jannik Sinner - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Facing an uphill challenge against Jannik Sinner on Thursday, Tomas Machac seeks to snap the second seed’s winning streak in the third round of the Monte Carlo Masters.

Sinner showed little rustiness in his first clay-court appearance in nearly a year, dispatching Ugo Humbert in straight sets and now faces Machac for the fourth time on the ATP Tour, aware of his winning record against the Czech player.

Match preview

Machac’s 2026 may have started commendably with a title in Brisbane, but a winning run has given way to inconsistency, with the 25-year-old unable to string victories together.

After a rough spell following his seventh win over Stefanos Tsitsipas in January, the world No. 53 could not manage consecutive wins until the first clay-court Masters event, where he has defeated Daniel Altmaier and Francisco Cerundolo in tight matches.

The former tested the former world No. 20’s bouncebackability after losing the second set so meekly, while he edged two tight sets against Cerundolo.

The Cerundolo victory means Machac has reached the third round in the Principality for the first time after exiting in round two 12 months ago, but he must now stun the world No 2 to advance to the quarter-finals.

However, the two-time ATP champion’s record against the elite players leaves much to be desired, with the 25-year-old entering Thursday’s contest at 4-19 overall in contests against the elite on the men’s tour.

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Snapping his seven-match losing run against the tour’s finest players will be far from easy, especially as the second seed faced next to no issues in his first match on the surface even though he only started training on the dirt a week ago.

Having kept pace with the 24-year-old for much of set one, Sinner turned the screw to seal the opener before handing out a bagel to the Frenchman to seal a 6-3 6-0 success.

The Italian won 91.3% of his first-serve points and 50% on his second deliveries to seal a 64-minute success without facing a break point.

In fact, the last time Sinner’s serve was broken by any opponent was in Miami, where the seven-time Masters 1000 champion was forced to dig deep against Alex Michelsen before claiming the win in two sets.

Now on a 13-match winning streak at Masters 1000 events in 2026, emulating Roger Federer’s 2017 feat, the 26-time ATP champion seeks a 14th to continue his bid to reclaim the No 1 ranking.

Tournament so far

Tomas Machac:

First round: vs. Daniel Altmaier 6-4 1-6 6-3 

Second round: vs. Francisco Cerundolo 7-6(2) 6-3

Jannik Sinner:

First round: Bye

Second round: vs. Ugo Humbert 6-3 6-0

Head To Head

Doha (2026) – Round of 32: Sinner 6-1 6-4

Shanghai Masters (2024) – Semi-final: Sinner 6-4 7-5

Miami Masters (2024) – Quarter-final: Sinner 6-4 6-2

Sinner leads his head-to-head with Machac 3-0, with all meetings coming on hard courts ahead of Thursday’s encounter on clay. 

Strikingly, the Italian star has yet to drop a set in all matchups, claiming all six sets ahead of their fourth encounter, with the second seed favoured to secure another routine success over the man from Czechia. 

We say: Sinner to win in two sets

Machac has not defeated a top-10 opponent in nearly two years since outlasting Grigor Dimitrov in three sets in Vienna, falling to seven straight losses against the elite.

With just two career wins secured over top-five players (2-12), the former world No 20 is unlikely to add to his 2024 wins over Djokovic and Alcaraz and Sinner is tipped to reach the last eight in two.