Preview: Monte-Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Sebastian Baez - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz returns to the scene of his first Masters 1000 title of 2025 when he faces Sebastian Baez in the second round of the Monte-Carlo Masters on Tuesday.

Knowing he could lose the No. 1 ranking this week, the top seed will hope to avoid a first defeat to his Argentine opponent on the ATP Tour, which would all but give Jannik Sinner a straight shot to the title.

Match preview

A mixed start to his 2025 season took a new turn in Monaco last year when Alcaraz claimed his first title in the Principality.

Having suffered defeat on his only appearance in 2022, the Spaniard claimed five wins 12 months ago to begin a stunning 22-1 run on clay that culminated in the successful defence of his French Open title.

Another mixed Sunshine Swing in 2026, coupled with Sinner claiming both titles in Indian Wells and Miami, has opened the door for the Italian opponent to supplant his rival, who is defending the 1000 points secured by winning last year's crown.

Previously unbeaten to start 2026, the youngest player to achieve the career Grand Slam enters the first clay Masters event after losing two of his last three matches.

However, he heads into the European clay swing with seemingly recharged batteries, which he hopes will stand him in good stead ahead of a run of tournaments on his favourite surface.

The 22-year-old enters Tuesday as the favourite to improve a 17-2 record for the season against Baez, who denied fans a mouthwatering Alcaraz v Stanislas Wawrinka contest during the veteran's last appearance in Monte-Carlo.

A 7-5, 7-5 victory over the soon-to-retire Swiss player marked the world No. 65's first success in the Principality, where he had previously lost to Pablo Carreno Busta, Jack Draper, Jan-Lennard Struff and Tomas Machac in 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025.

Still, Baez has typically thrived on the surface, winning six of his seven tour-level titles on the dirt, including a run of five championship matches in the last two years, four of which have been since the beginning of 2025.

Already 6-4 for the season on the surface (16-8 overall), he reached the semi-finals in Buenos Aires and Santiago during the South American clay swing in February and enters Tuesday aiming to improve a recent 2-3 record on the tour.

Baez's two victories during the mini-run have been on clay, but a significantly better showing will be required to defeat the tour's finest player on the dirt to secure consecutive wins in Monte-Carlo for the first time.

Tournament so far

Carlos Alcaraz:

First round: Bye

Sebastian Baez:

First round: vs. Stanislas Wawrinka 7-5 7-5

Head To Head

Tokyo (2025) - Round of 32: Alcaraz 6-4 6-2

US Open (2022) - First round: Alcaraz 7-5 7-5 2-0 ret.

NextGen Finals (2021) - Semi-final: Alcaraz 4-2 4-1 4-2

Alcaraz leads Baez 3-0 in their head-to-head, though all their previous meetings have been on hard courts, with the Spanish player yet to drop a set.

Strikingly, though, the former world No. 18 is 2-0 against top-10 players this season, defeating Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton in the United Cup and in Auckland after previously suffering 15 consecutive losses against elite players.

However, defeating Alcaraz presents an uphill challenge for a player who is 0-14 against opponents ranked in the top five.

We say: Alcaraz to win in two sets

Entering the clay swing motivated and refreshed after losing momentum during the Sunshine Swing, Alcaraz is anticipated to make light work of an opponent who is predicted to lose his 15th straight meeting with a top-five opponent.