Preview: Monte-Carlo Masters: Matteo Berrettini vs. Joao Fonseca - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off handing Daniil Medvedev a double bagel on Wednesday, Matteo Berrettini returns to the clay courts in the Principality to face Joao Fonseca in the Monte-Carlo Masters third round on Thursday.

The Italian dispatched the former world No. 1 in just 49 minutes to set up a second meeting on the ATP Tour with Fonseca, who emulated Rafael Nadal and Richard Gasquet’s 2005 feat as the youngest player to reach the third round at the Monte Carlo Country Club.

Match preview

When Berrettini had to defend two break points in his opening service game against Medvedev, one would have assumed that a long, drawn-out tussle was on the cards.

That was anticipated too, with Medvedev backed to triumph over an opponent he had previously beaten 3-0 before their maiden clay-court meeting in the Principality.

What followed, however, was a stunningly straightforward 6-0, 6-0 victory for the former world No. 6, who has now advanced to the third round of the first Masters 1000 event on clay without dropping a set.

Berrettini was a beneficiary of Roberto Bautista Agut’s retirement after just four games, and he claimed a further 12 games without reply at the expense of Medvedev, whose racquet received rough treatment due to his frustration.

Now into the third round of the Monte-Carlo Masters for the third time, the former Italian No. 1, whose victory over Medvedev ended a year-long wait for success against a top-10 opponent, aims to reach the quarter-final for the first time.

Standing in his way is Fonseca, fresh from a thrilling 7-5, 4-6, 6-3 success over hard-hitting Arthur Rinderknech.

The 19-year-old has had to win his two matches in different ways, sealing a comfortable 6-2, 6-3 success over Gabriel Diallo in the opening round before needing to show his battling qualities to outlast Rinderknech.

The teenager saved 10 of the 12 break-point opportunities his French opponent created to edge past the world No. 27 in two hours and 32 minutes after recovering from being pegged back in the second set.

Having emulated Nadal and Gasquet’s 2005 feat by reaching the last 16 on his debut in the Principality, Fonseca’s clay-court expertise could now lead to a quarter-final appearance at Berrettini’s expense.

That would be easier said than done against an opponent whose momentum is building after two victories without dropping a set, but the teenage sensation will back himself to reach a maiden quarter-final at this level by overcoming the Italian wild card.

Tournament so far

Matteo Berrettini:

First round: vs. Roberto Bautista Agut 4-0 (ret)

Second round: vs. Daniil Medvedev 6-0 6-0

Joao Fonseca:

First round: vs. Gabriel Diallo 6-2 6-3

Second round: vs. Arthur Rinderknech 7-5 4-6 6-3

Head To Head

Davis Cup (2024) – Round Robin: Berrettini 6-1 7-6(5)

Berrettini and Fonseca have faced off once before on the tour, with the Italian defeating the youngster in Davis Cup action almost two years ago.

Much has changed since the then-17-year-old lost in straight sets to the former world No. 6, although the teenager displayed his potential in a second set that went the distance, narrowly losing to the 10-time ATP champion.

Fonseca heads into Thursday’s encounter with mixed form against opponents ranked outside the top 50 in 2026, highlighted by a 2-3 win-loss record against such players, notably losing to Alejandro Tabilo and Ignacio Buse on his favoured surface in Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro, respectively.

We say: Fonseca to win in three sets

Both players are expected to trade heavy blows from the baseline, with supreme ball-striking on the cards on Thursday.

Berrettini has advanced to the third round without much difficulty, but Fonseca is anticipated to make Thursday’s contest a more competitive one than Bautista Agut or Medvedev managed.

The Brazilian teenager is tipped to outlast the former Italian No. 1 in three tight sets to reach the last eight in Monte-Carlo on his debut.