Preview: Monte-Carlo Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs. Valentin Vacherot - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Back nearly a year after losing to Carlos Alcaraz in the championship match, Lorenzo Musetti takes on Valentin Vacherot on Wednesday in the Monte-Carlo Masters second round.

The home favourite returns to the scene of his stunning first-round success over Juan Manuel Cerundolo, aiming to advance to the third round at the expense of last year's runner-up.

Match preview

For a while on Monday, it seemed as though Vacherot's moment might end in dismal disappointment as he lost the first set and trailed 2-0 in the second, only to produce an impressive fightback.

Seemingly set to lose in the tournament opener, the Monegasque managed to bounce back and claim a 5-7, 6-2, 6-1 victory to reach the second round.

Vacherot's reward for winning 12 of the last 13 games to defeat Cerundolo is a chance to make the third round in his home tournament for the first time.

Previous appearances had ended in tournament-opening exits (2023, 2024) before last year's round-two elimination, but much has changed for the 27-year-old, who made history in Shanghai by claiming the Masters 1000 title, becoming the lowest-ranked player to win a championship at that level.

Now with an 11-7 record for the season, the world No 23 hopes to leverage his home support to defeat another top-10 player and reach the third round in his home tournament for the first time.

Defeating Musetti appears to be within the realms of possibility due to Vacherot enjoying one-sided support and also because of the Italian's lack of competitive action.

The world No 5 has barely competed since he was forced to retire against Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open quarter-final, despite claiming the first two sets.

The 24-year-old returned at Indian Wells, only to fall in under 90 minutes to Marton Fucsovics before skipping Miami.

This leaves the Italian No 2 playing fitness catch-up, even if he enters Wednesday's contest with a 7-3 record for the season and seeking an eighth win at Vacherot's expense.

Musetti enjoyed a stunning 19-4 record on clay last year, reaching the semi-finals of the major tournaments on the surface, but his lack of competitive match action potentially puts him at risk of a drop in the rankings.

Tournament so far

Lorenzo Musetti: 

First round: Bye

Valentin Vacherot:

First round: vs. Juan Manuel Cerundolo 5-7 6-2 6-1

Head To Head

Wednesday's contest will be the first meeting between Musetti and Vacherot on the ATP Tour, with the victor taking a 1-0 lead in their head-to-head.

Although the home hope defeated Alexander Bublik in Davis Cup action in February, he has yet to defeat another top-10 player at tour level since last October's victory over Djokovic in Shanghai, stunning the Serbian superstar in straight sets.

Now, Vacherot is seeking to inflict back-to-back defeats on Musetti against players ranked outside the top 20, having last experienced such a situation in July-August last year following losses to Alex Michelsen and Benjamin Bonzi in Canada-Cincinnati.

We say: Vacherot to win in three sets

Musetti is an incredibly smooth operator on clay, and his run to the semi-finals in all the Masters 1000 tournaments last year was indeed no surprise.

However, his lack of competitive action, combined with Vacherot having the advantage of a partisan crowd, suggests that the 27-year-old will take down the 2025 finalist in Wednesday's second round.