Preview: Aryna Sabaleka vs. Daria Kasatkina- French Open prediction, form, head-to-head

WTA rivals Aryna Sabalenka and Daria Kasatkina will face each other at the French Open for the second time, with a place in the last 16 up for grabs on Saturday.

Last year’s finalist at this event got past Elsa Jacquemot 7-5 6-2, while Kasatkina won a couple of tight sets against Susan Bandecchi 7-5 7-6 (13-11).

Match preview

After another close opening set on Thursday, Sabalenka showed her power in set number two, taking command against her French counterpart and advancing into round three.

The four-time Grand Slam winner has yet to register a single double fault at this event in 2026, while collecting a combined 11 break points.

Since exiting the French Open third-round on three successive occasions to begin this decade, Sabalenka has not lost a single match at that stage of a major tournament.

She has reached the third round of her last 13 Grand Slams, winning the tournament in four of those instances, while getting to the semi-finals or further in her previous two singles events at Roland-Garros.

Her devastating forehand power and precision was on full display Thursday as Sabalenka hit 42 winners, though she committed 31 unforced errors, unusually high for a player of her calibre.

While she has only registered two aces at this year’s French Open, the Belarusian has been consistent on her first serves, winning 68% of them in each of her two matches.

It took a lot of patience and persistence for Daria Kasatkina to break through in her second-round affair at Roland-Garros this week.

The Russian-born player, who represents Australia, won 65% of her first serves but also committed 34 unforced errors.

In the end, she survived and has an opportunity to make it beyond round three of the French Open for a second successive year and the fourth time in five years.

The 2022 semi-finalist at this tournament will try to avoid suffering three straight third-round defeats at a Grand Slam singles event, with Naomi Osaka beating her in three sets at this stage of the previous US Open.

Lately, she has had decent amount of success on clay, advancing to the quarter-finals or further in two of her last three singles tournaments on that surface, including capturing the Catalonia Open.

In 2026, she had made her share of mistakes, with over 100 double faults, while registering five on Thursday, half as many as she had in her opener.

Tournament so far

Aryna Sabalenka:

First round: vs. Jessica Bouzas 6-4 6-2

Second round: vs. Elsa Jacquemot 7-5 6-2

Daria Kasatkina:

First round: vs. Zeynep Sonmez 6-4 6-4

Second round: vs. Susan Bandecchi7-5 7-6 (13-11)

Head To Head

Beijing Open (2019) - Round of 32: Kasatkina wins 6-4 7-6

French Open (2020) - Round of 32: Sabalenka wins 7-6 6-0

Australian Open (2021) - Round of 64: Sabalenka wins 7-6 6-3

Madrid Open (2021) - Round of 32: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-3

San Jose Open (2022) - Quarter-finals: Kasatkina wins 4-6 7-5 6-0

Cincinnati Open (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-3 6-3

US Open (2023) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-3

Brisbane Open (2024) - Quarter-finals: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-4

Berlin Open (2024) - Round of 16: Sabalenka wins 6-1 6-4

The first meeting between these two in October 2019 saw Sabalenka uncharacteristically poor on her serve, with nine double faults, while Kasatkina won 63% of her first serves.

Sabalenka got her revenge at Roland-Garros the following year, converting seven of her nine break-point opportunities, to go along with four aces.

In the second round at the famed Margaret Court Arena in 2021, Sabalenka won 65% of her return points and converted five of her seven break point opportunities.

Kasatkina’s last victory over Sabalenka came in California the following year, when she won 73% of her first-serve points and converted four of her five break points.

At Flushing Meadows in 2023, Sabalenka was razor sharp in her return game, converting seven break points to advance comfortably.

The last time these two faced each other in Germany two years ago, the Belarusian did not commit a single double fault while winning 73% of her first serves.

We say: Sabalenka to win in two sets

Kasatkina’s power and crafty forehand will not make it easy for Sabalenka, but the top-seeded women’s player still has a plethora of weapons that can be of use to her, and we expect her perseverance and resourcefulness will carry her through.