Preview: Madrid Open: Alexander Bublik vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas - prediction, head-to-head, tournament so far

Fresh off a stunning three-set victory over Patrick Kypson in the opening round in the Spanish capital, Stefanos Tsitsipas takes on Alexander Bublik on Saturday, aiming to advance to the third round.

The former Madrid Open semi-finalist needed two hours and 38 minutes to get past the lucky loser on Thursday, ending a two-month losing streak to set up a third meeting on the ATP Tour with Bublik, who has historically fared well in Spain.

Match preview

Tsitsipas entered Madrid on the back of three consecutive defeats since falling to Arthur Fils in Miami, and to Francisco Cerundolo and Fabian Marozsan in Monte Carlo and Munich, respectively.

When he slipped up in the opening set against his American opponent, it would have been understandable to foresee another disappointing exit at a Masters 1000 tournament, having exited in the opening rounds in Indian Wells and Monte-Carlo.

However, the Greek star rallied in sets two and three to claim a pair of tie-breaks en route to a 3-6, 7-6(6), 7-6(4) victory despite failing to break his opponent. Tsitsipas’s reward for digging deep pits him against the eighth seed, against whom he has never lost on the men’s tour, and he will bid to extend that run this weekend in Madrid.

Thursday’s win improved the 27-year-old to 12-9 for the season, and 13-7 overall in Madrid, where he reached the semis in 2022 and the quarter-finals 12 months later.

However, the 12-time ATP champion failed to reach the third round in the next two years, exiting in the second round in 2024 before falling to eventual semi-finalist Lorenzo Musetti in the third round 12 months ago.

Facing Bublik may be coming at the right time, given that the eighth seed enters Madrid after two losses to Carlos Alcaraz in Monte-Carlo and to Munich qualifier Alex Molcan.

With both defeats coming in straight sets, the streaky 28-year-old seeks to return to winning ways in the Spanish capital.

Bublik enters the fourth Masters of the year aware of his admirable record in Madrid, where he holds a 9-5 career record heading into this year’s tournament.

This Masters event has brought the Kazakhstani star’s finest results at ATP 1000 level, evidenced by a 64% win rate, significantly clear of every other such tournament in his career.

Aiming to secure his 10th victory at the event, potentially bringing him to double figures in wins at a Masters event for the first time, Bublik will back himself to finally solve his Tsitsipas puzzle.

Tournament so far

Alexander Bublik:

First round: Bye

Stefanos Tsitsipas:

First round: vs. Patrick Kypson 3-6 7-6[6] 7-6[4]

Head To Head

Dubai (2020) – Round of 16: Tsitsipas 7-6(1) 6-4

Marseille (2020) – Semi-final: Tsitsipas 7-5 6-3

Although Saturday’s meeting will be their third at tour level, both men will be facing each other for the first time on clay.

Tsitsipas has won their two previous encounters in Marseille and Dubai, both in tight two-setters, but those matches were six years ago.

Much has changed for Bublik since then, and the nine-time title-holder aims to be third-time lucky against the two-time Grand Slam finalist and three-time Masters 1000 champion.

The higher-ranked Bublik holds a 15-8 record this season, securing three more wins than Tsitsipas, who enters this weekend’s meeting at 12-9 and aims to improve that tally.

We say: Bublik to win in three sets

Given his encouraging record in the Spanish capital, Bublik may fancy his chances of claiming a hard-earned win over Tsitsipas in a match likely to feature little between the pair.

The margins should be slim, but the higher-ranked player’s confidence in these conditions could help him scrape through and notch a 10th career win in Madrid.