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Six Nations | Group Stage
Feb 25, 2023 at 4.45pm UK
 
Wales
10-20
England
FT
Watson (19'), Sinckler (45'), Lawrence (75')

Preview: Wales vs. England - prediction, team news, head to head

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Six Nations clash between Wales and England, including predictions, team news and their head-to-head record.

Saturday's Six Nations showdown between Wales and England in Cardiff will go ahead after the WRU reached a late agreement with their players to avert the nuclear option of a player strike.

The tumult and turmoil off the pitch in Welsh rugby has so far been mirrored on it in the Six Nations, though, with Warren Gatland's side losing their opening two matches, whereas England picked up their first win of the Steve Borthwick era at the expense of Italy last time out.


Match preview

Wales head coach Warren Gatland before the match on February 4, 2023© Reuters

Branded a "laughing stock" by their own captain Ken Owens due to the disarray behind the scenes at the WRU of late, Wales will hope to be able to shift their focus firmly back to the rugby when they welcome their neighbours England to the Principality Stadium.

Allegations of sexism, racism and misogyny within Welsh rugby's governing body had already seen Gatland's second stint as boss get off to an inauspicious start, before the payment row between the WRU and the players became the latest off-field soap opera to overshadow a proud nation's national sport.

With both issues now having been solved or at least addressed, Gatland will be desperate to focus on matters on the pitch, with his side not faring too well on that front either.

Had the threatened strike gone ahead then Wales would have been left with zero points after three games, with the 2021 Grand Slam champions not just winless so far, but also pointless having failed to pick up a bonus point in either match.

That leaves them propping up the table after two games, with the fewest points scored, the most points against, the fewest tries scored and the joint-most tries conceded in this year's competition so far.

The fact that they are playing this game means that they will at least have the chance to improve those worrying statistics, although the away game against Italy in Rome next up is already looming large as a possible Wooden Spoon decider.

Defeat to Ireland on the opening weekend was largely expected, even factoring in the return of the competition's most successful coach in Gatland, but their loss to Scotland last time out would have stung particularly badly.

Wales had snuffed out positive Scottish starts to the Six Nations in both of the previous two years under Wayne Pivac, but this time around they succumbed to their biggest-ever Test defeat at the hands of their northern neighbours.

Owens scored Wales' only try as they were well beaten and, while two Scottish tries in the final 10 minutes added gloss to the eventual 35-7 scoreline for the hosts, it was a miserable Murrayfield experience for the visitors as they opened a Six Nations campaign with back-to-back defeats for the first time since 2007.

In addition to shipping points too freely, Wales have also been particularly wasteful in attack, averaging less than one point per entry into the 22 in both of their games so far.

England's Henry Arundell celebrates scoring their third try with teammates on February 12, 2023© Reuters

On the bright side, they face an English team that has looked alarmingly open in defence and susceptible to teams running at them with the ball in hand.

Duhan van der Merwe's stunning solo try in the defeat to Scotland at Twickenham in gameweek one was the clearest example of this, but England also missed a whopping 41 tackles in their win over Italy last time out - their highest-ever tally in a Six Nations match.

New defence coach Kevin Sinfield has no doubt been working overtime on that issue during the two-week break between matches, but head coach Steve Borthwick does at least have a first win under his belt courtesy of that bonus-point 34-14 home triumph over a potential banana skin in Italy.

Most of the damage was done in the first half as England scored 19 unanswered points before the interval, and while Borthwick will be the first to admit that there is more to come from his side, they are at least now on the board in the Six Nations and sit third - above defending champions France - heading into game three.

Another victory over Wales this weekend would keep their hopes alive of ending Borthwick's maiden campaign with the trophy, particularly with matches against the two pre-tournament favourites France and Ireland to finish their campaign.

It would take some effort to topple the world's top-two ranked sides in succession, particularly with their final match coming away to Ireland in Dublin, but victory this weekend would at least keep them in the mix heading into the second week off.

Victories in Cardiff have not been easy to come by for England in recent years, though, so even with Wales embroiled in so many off-field troubles, Saturday's contest will be far from straightforward for Borthwick's men.

Wales Six Nations form:

  • L
  • L


England Six Nations form:

  • L
  • W



Team News

Wales' Dan Biggar in action on February 23, 2023© Reuters

The record defeat to Scotland gave Gatland plenty to think about, and the New Zealander has rung the changes for this match as a result, making nine in total.

George North and Dan Biggar are the highest-profile casualties, with the latter being replaced by Owen Williams at fly-half as the Ospreys man wins just his fifth cap.

Mason Grady will make his debut in place of North at outside centre, while Louis Rees-Zammit will feature for the first time in this season's tournament having recovered from injury.

There is plenty of experience coming into the team too, though, with Leigh Halfpenny also available again after injury to make his first Wales start since July 2021 at 15, while Alun Wyn Jones is recalled for Test appearance number 157.

Justin Tipuric and Taulupe Faletau also come back into the pack, as do Gareth Thomas and Tomas Francis in the front row.

There is no place at all in the matchday 23 for North or Liam Williams as Gatland sends a message to his squad with his selection.

By contrast, England have made just the one change to the side which beat Italy last time out, with Anthony Watson replacing the injured Ollie Hassell-Collins on the left wing.

That means that Owen Farrell is again at fly-half with Marcus Smith on the bench and Bath's Ollie Lawrence - player of the match against Italy having beaten eight defenders, more than any England centre has ever managed in a single Six Nations game - at 12.

The pack remains unchanged despite Courtney Lawes being back and available from the bench - one of two changes amongst the replacements with Ben Curry also taking the place of Ben Earl.

Wales starting lineup:
15. Leigh Halfpenny, 14. Josh Adams, 13. Mason Grady, 12. Joe Hawkins, 11. Louis Rees-Zammit, 10. Owen Williams, 9. Tomos Williams; 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Ken Owens, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Adam Beard, 5. Alun Wyn Jones, 6. Christ Tshiunza, 7. Justin Tipuric, 8. Taulupe Faletau

Replacements: 16. Bradley Roberts, 17. Rhys Carre, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Dafydd Jenkins, 20. Tommy Reffell, 21. Kieran Hardy, 22. Dan Biggar, 23. Nick Tompkins

England starting lineup:
15. Freddie Steward, 14. Max Malins, 13. Henry Slade, 12. Ollie Lawrence, 11. Anthony Watson, 10. Owen Farrell, 9. Jack van Poortvliet; 1. Ellis Genge, 2. Jamie George, 3. Kyle Sinckler, 4. Maro Itoje, 5. Ollie Chessum, 6. Lewis Ludlam, 7. Jack Willis, 8. Alex Dombrandt.

Replacements: 16. Jack Walker, 17. Mako Vunipola, 18. Dan Cole, 19. Courtney Lawes, 20. Ben Curry, 21. Alex Mitchell, 22. Marcus Smith, 23. Henry Arundell


Head To Head

England and Wales players after the Six Nations match on February 27, 2021© Reuters

England are looking for their first win in Cardiff since 2017, having lost on their two visits to the Principality Stadium - the most recent of which saw them well beaten 40-24.

Eddie Jones's side did get revenge for that loss by winning 23-19 at Twickenham last season, though, when Alex Dombrandt scored the match-winning try.

In total, England have won 15 of the 23 Six Nations meetings between the two sides, but at the Principality Stadium they have only won six of their 14 visits, losing the other eight.

Across their all-time head-to-head record, England edge the victories 66 to 60, with 12 draws in that time too.


SM words green background

We say: Wales 24-29 England

We may be two games into this season's tournament, but major question marks still hang over both teams. Will Wales improve now that the off-field issues are hopefully behind them? Can England's victory over Italy be used as a true measuring stick?

Wales winger Rees-Zammit will be licking his lips at some of England's defending so far in this tournament and he could do some damage on Saturday, but it is also impossible to ignore the fact that Wales are bottom of the pile in just about every scoring stat which matters so far.

It should be a great tussle between the two old rivals, but ultimately we are backing England to come out on top.

No Data Analysis info



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Written by
Barney Corkhill

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How you voted: Wales vs England

Wales
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Draw
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England
78.9%
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Louis Rees-Zammit in action for Gloucester on December 5, 2019
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