Preview: South Africa vs. New Zealand - prediction, team news, lineups

South Africa meet New Zealand at the M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore on Saturday evening for the fourth and final test match between the two sides this summer.

In last weekend's third test in Johannesburg, the Springboks took a series lead by claiming a 29-24 win over the All Blacks at the FNB Stadium.

Match preview

Following their narrow victory In Johannesburg last weekend, winning by just a five point margin, South Africa know that if they are able to avoid defeat on Saturday evening then they will claim an overall triumph over New Zealand in this summer’s test series.

Despite conceding two Ardie Savea scores in the first period at the FNB Stadium, the Springboks were able to draw level by the break and courtesy of second-half tries from Jesse Kriel and Malcolm Marx, Rassie Erasmus's men take a 2-1 lead into the final bout.

The victory not only gave South Africa the advantage over New Zealand, but also means that they have lost just one of their previous 16 outings and having won their latest seven matches away from home, the Springboks will be confident of wrapping up the series this weekend.

After losing two of their prior three matches against New Zealand, Erasmus's side have now claimed consecutive wins against the All Blacks and are certainly the favourites to take the victory once more this weekend in Rugby’s Greatest Rivalry.

Although they took the series lead in the opening fixture last month, posting a convincing 33-16 scoreline at Ellis Park Stadium, New Zealand head into this weekend’s clash needing to claim victory in order to level the scoring after four matches.

Following a nine-game winning streak which saw them dispatch the likes of France, Ireland and South Africa themselves, the All Blacks have since suffered back-to-back losses for the first time in over two years and if they were to fall to defeat once more on Saturday, would match an unwanted run that they last suffered in 2022.

Having won all three of their home games in the inaugural Nations Championship campaign, the only side other than the Springboks to do so, Dave Rennie’s men will be looking to swiftly bounce back to form before the leg of away fixtures and there is certainly no better way to do so then getting one back on their fiercest rivals.

However, winning just two of their previous nine meetings with South Africa, New Zealand are undoubtedly the underdogs heading into the clash and will have to be on top form if they are to earn a result at the M&T Bank Stadium.

South Africa form (all competitions):

New Zealand form (all competitions):

Team News

Erasmus has made two changes to the backline that started in Johannesburg last weekend with Cheslin Kolbe and Cobus Reinach making way for Damian Willemse and Morne van den Berg respectively.

However, the Springboks have deployed the exact same pack as the third test as Malcolm Marx starts at hooker, Siya Kolisi captains the side from blindside-flanker and Jasper Wiese rounds off the scrum on the back-row.

Having swapped places with van den Berg, Reinach starts on the bench for the first time since the opening test and is the only difference amongst the South Africa replacements.

On the other hand, New Zealand have made five changes to their scrum with Ardie Savea and Luke Jacobson amongst those to make way due to sustaining a dislocated shoulder and tendon injury respectively.

With Savea making way, Rennie has given the armband to Codie Taylor for the decisive test, with the 35-year-old starring in a brand new All Blacks front-row that also consists of Ethan de Groot and Fletcher Newell.

Quinn Tupaea is also unavailable after suffering an MCL injury last week and joins Leroy Carter and Ruben Love in making way in the backs, allowing Richie Mo'unga to make his first test appearance at fly-half since the 2023 Rugby World Cup final.

Finally, Rieko Ioane and Beauden Barrett are undoubtedly the names too look out for within the New Zealand replacements with both making their first appearances in a matchday squad under Rennie and joining Kyle Preston as the three backs on the bench.

South Africa starting lineup:

15 Damian Willemse, 14 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Ethan Hooker, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Morne van den Berg; 1 Ox Nche, 2 Malcolm Marx, 3 Wilco Louw, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 5 Ruan Nortje, 6 Siya Kolisi, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit, 8 Jasper Wiese

Replacements:

16 Deon Fourie, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Thomas du Toit, 19 Lood de Jager, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Cameron Hanekom, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok

New Zealand starting lineup:

15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Anton Lienert-Brown, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Richie Mo'unga, 9 Cam Roigard; 1 Ethan de Groot, 2 Codie Taylor, 3 Fletcher Newell, 4 Patrick Tuipulotu, 5 Sam Darry, 6 Tupou Va'ai, 7 Ethan Blackadder, 8 Peter Lakai

Replacements:

16 Asafo Aumua, 17 Xavier Numia, 18 Tyrel Lomax, 19 Josh Lord, 20 Wallace Sititi, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Rieko Ioane, 23 Beauden Barrett

We say: South Africa 26-24 New Zealand

Despite narrowly losing each of the previous two test matches, New Zealand will head into Saturday's contest in Baltimore with belief that they can claw back level with South Africa and halt their losing run.

However, although we are certainly set for another gripping encounter with each of the three clashes so far being closely fought, we think the Springboks will take the glory by the tightest of margins and claim a 3-1 series win.